Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1173 Glenn Martin Hall, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20742. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77751-2.
Since the first case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Wuhan, China, social distancing has been promoted worldwide, including in the United States, as a major community mitigation strategy. However, our understanding remains limited in how people would react to such control measures, as well as how people would resume their normal behaviours when those orders were relaxed. We utilize an integrated dataset of real-time mobile device location data involving 100 million devices in the contiguous United States (plus Alaska and Hawaii) from February 2, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Built upon the common human mobility metrics, we construct a Social Distancing Index (SDI) to evaluate people's mobility pattern changes along with the spread of COVID-19 at different geographic levels. We find that both government orders and local outbreak severity significantly contribute to the strength of social distancing. As people tend to practice less social distancing immediately after they observe a sign of local mitigation, we identify several states and counties with higher risks of continuous community transmission and a second outbreak. Our proposed index could help policymakers and researchers monitor people's real-time mobility behaviours, understand the influence of government orders, and evaluate the risk of local outbreaks.
自中国武汉首例新型冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 确诊以来,包括美国在内的全球范围内都推行了社交隔离措施,这是主要的社区缓解策略。然而,我们对于人们对这些控制措施的反应,以及当这些命令放松时人们将如何恢复正常行为的理解仍然有限。我们利用了一个包含美国大陆(加上阿拉斯加和夏威夷)的 1 亿台移动设备的实时位置数据的综合数据集,时间范围为 2020 年 2 月 2 日至 2020 年 5 月 30 日。基于常见的人类流动性指标,我们构建了一个社交距离指数 (SDI),以评估随着 COVID-19 在不同地理层面的传播,人们的移动模式变化。我们发现,政府命令和当地疫情严重程度都显著影响社交隔离的强度。由于人们在观察到当地缓解迹象后往往会立即减少社交活动,我们确定了几个州和县存在持续社区传播和第二次疫情爆发的更高风险。我们提出的指数可以帮助政策制定者和研究人员监测人们的实时流动行为,了解政府命令的影响,并评估当地疫情的风险。
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