Agroscope, RD Plant Protection, Wädenswil, Switzerland.
Agroscope, RD Agroecology and Environment, Zurich, Switzerland.
Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Nov;26(11):6338-6349. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15313. Epub 2020 Sep 7.
Climate change and globalization affect the suitable conditions for agricultural crops and insect pests, threatening future food security. It remains unknown whether shifts in species' climatic suitability will be linear or rather non-linear, with crop exposure to pests suddenly increasing when a critical temperature threshold is crossed. Moreover, uncertainty of forecasts can arise because of the modelling approach based either on species distribution data or on physiological measurements. Here, we compared the predictions of two modelling approaches (physiological models and species distribution models) for forecasting the potential distribution of agricultural insect pests in Europe. Despite conceptual differences, we found good agreement overall between the two approaches. We further identified a potential regime change in pest pressure along a temperature gradient. With both modelling approaches, we found an inflection point in the number of pest species with suitable climatic conditions around a minimum temperature of the coldest month of -3°C. Our results could help decision-makers anticipate the onset of rising pest pressure and provide support for intensifying surveillance measures, particularly in regions where temperatures are already beyond the inflection point.
气候变化和全球化影响了农业作物和害虫的适宜条件，威胁着未来的粮食安全。物种的气候适宜性是否会呈线性或非线性变化仍不清楚，当跨越一个关键的温度阈值时，作物突然会面临害虫的大量侵袭。此外，由于预测所基于的模型方法是基于物种分布数据还是生理测量，不确定性也会出现。在这里，我们比较了两种建模方法（生理模型和物种分布模型）对预测欧洲农业害虫潜在分布的预测。尽管存在概念上的差异，但总体上两种方法之间具有很好的一致性。我们还发现了在温度梯度上害虫压力潜在的制度变化。通过这两种建模方法，我们发现当最冷月的温度在-3°C 左右时，适宜气候条件下的害虫物种数量会出现拐点。我们的研究结果可以帮助决策者预测害虫压力上升的开始，并为加强监测措施提供支持，特别是在温度已经超过拐点的地区。
