天然气消费对撒哈拉以南非洲二氧化碳排放的影响：证据与政策视角。
Impact of natural gas consumption on sub-Saharan Africa's CO emissions: Evidence and policy perspective.
机构信息
School of management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian 361005, PR China.
School of management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian 361005, PR China; Belt and Road Research Institute, Xiamen University, Fujian 361005, China.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Mar 15;760:143321. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143321. Epub 2020 Nov 12.
With huge natural gas(NG) reserves and current low (1%) share of non-hydro renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), can natural gas offer SSA a low-carbon energy transition? Employing data from 1980 to 2017, this paper investigates the impact of NG consumption on SSA's CO emissions using data-driven nonparametric additive regression(NPAR) which can reveal both linear and nonlinear effects. Augmenting NPAR with translog production function(TPF) estimates of interfuel substitution elasticities and bias technological progress over sample period(advantage of TPF), we further provide evidence of the indirect effect of NG consumption on SSA's CO emissions through mechanism analysis. From the empirical results, the linear effect shows NG positively impact CO emissions while the nonlinear effect indicates a downward decreasing trend (meaning expansion in NG consumption will gradually lower CO emissions). Nonlinearly, urbanization and energy efficiency also show positive "inverted U-Shaped" and "downward slopping" respectively meaning sustainable urban energy and energy efficiency practices improvement can lead to CO reduction respectively in SSA. The reducing effect of NG consumption on CO (the nonlinear effect) is realized through the enhancement of positive bias technological progress of NG over coal and oil but not merely substitution of coal and oil for NG. Technological progress improvement in NG use will also reduce the positive linear effect of urbanization and energy efficiency on CO emissions of SSA. Oil is more likely to be substituted for NG than that of coal in SSA. The scenario analysis shows a total of 6.9%, 7.6% and 8.3% of energy conservation is realized in 2022, 2026 and 2030 with a corresponding CO reduction of 18.7%, 20.7% and 22.9% respectively for a continuous 10% investment in NG. Institutional, market-oriented and technology challenges hinder NG development among major producers in SSA. Based on the results, several policy measures are put forward to promote SSA's low-carbon energy transition.
拥有巨大的天然气（NG）储备，且目前撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的非水力可再生能源比例仅为 1%，天然气能否为 SSA 提供低碳能源转型？本文利用 1980 年至 2017 年的数据，采用可以揭示线性和非线性影响的数据驱动非参数加性回归（NPAR）方法，研究了 NG 消费对 SSA 二氧化碳排放的影响。通过在 NPAR 中加入跨期燃料替代弹性和偏向技术进步的估计（TPF），我们进一步通过机制分析提供了 NG 消费对 SSA 二氧化碳排放的间接影响的证据。从实证结果来看，线性效应表明 NG 对 CO 排放有正向影响，而非线性效应表明呈下降趋势（这意味着 NG 消费的扩张将逐渐降低 CO 排放）。非线性方面，城市化和能源效率分别呈积极的“倒 U 型”和“向下倾斜”，这意味着可持续的城市能源和能源效率实践的改善可以分别导致 SSA 的 CO 减排。NG 消费对 CO 的减排效应（非线性效应）是通过提高 NG 相对于煤和油的正向偏向技术进步来实现的，但不仅仅是煤和油对 NG 的替代。NG 使用技术进步的提高也会降低城市化和能源效率对 SSA 二氧化碳排放的正向线性影响。在 SSA，石油比煤炭更有可能被 NG 替代。情景分析表明，在 2022 年、2026 年和 2030 年，对 NG 进行连续 10%的投资，可分别实现 6.9%、7.6%和 8.3%的节能，相应的 CO 减排量分别为 18.7%、20.7%和 22.9%。制度、市场导向和技术挑战阻碍了 SSA 主要生产国的 NG 发展。基于这些结果，提出了几项政策措施来促进 SSA 的低碳能源转型。
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