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具有可变种群规模的非线性随机SEIR传染病系统的动力学分析

Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size.

作者信息

Han Xiaofeng, Li Fei, Meng Xinzhu

机构信息

College of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China.

State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2018 May 17;20(5):376. doi: 10.3390/e20050376.

Abstract

This paper considers a stochastic susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with varying population size and vaccination. We aim to study the global dynamics of the reduced nonlinear stochastic proportional differential system. We first investigate the existence and uniqueness of global positive solution of the stochastic system. Then the sufficient conditions for the extinction and permanence in mean of the infectious disease are obtained. Furthermore, we prove that the solution of the stochastic system has a unique ergodic stationary distribution under appropriate conditions. Finally, the discussion and numerical simulation are given to demonstrate the obtained results.

摘要

本文考虑了一个具有变化人口规模和疫苗接种的随机易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR)流行病模型。我们旨在研究简化后的非线性随机比例微分系统的全局动态。我们首先研究随机系统全局正解的存在性和唯一性。然后得到了传染病灭绝和均值持久的充分条件。此外,我们证明了在适当条件下随机系统的解具有唯一的遍历平稳分布。最后,给出了讨论和数值模拟以验证所得结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d542/7512895/6643cf50233a/entropy-20-00376-g002.jpg

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