Dehdashti Shahram, Fell Lauren, Bruza Peter
School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia.
Entropy (Basel). 2020 Feb 4;22(2):174. doi: 10.3390/e22020174.
This article presents a general framework that allows irrational decision making to be theoretically investigated and simulated. Rationality in human decision making under uncertainty is normatively prescribed by the axioms of probability theory in order to maximize utility. However, substantial literature from psychology and cognitive science shows that human decisions regularly deviate from these axioms. Bistable probabilities are proposed as a principled and straight forward means for modeling (ir)rational decision making, which occurs when a decision maker is in "two minds". We show that bistable probabilities can be formalized by positive-operator-valued projections in quantum mechanics. We found that (1) irrational decision making necessarily involves a wider spectrum of causal relationships than rational decision making, (2) the accessible information turns out to be greater in irrational decision making when compared to rational decision making, and (3) irrational decision making is quantum-like because it violates the Bell-Wigner polytope.
本文提出了一个通用框架，该框架能够在理论上对非理性决策进行研究和模拟。不确定性条件下人类决策的合理性在规范上由概率论公理规定，以实现效用最大化。然而，心理学和认知科学的大量文献表明，人类决策经常偏离这些公理。双稳态概率被提议作为一种有原则且直接的手段，用于对（非）理性决策进行建模，这种情况发生在决策者“犹豫不决”时。我们表明，双稳态概率可以用量子力学中的正算子值投影来形式化。我们发现：（1）非理性决策必然涉及比理性决策更广泛的因果关系谱；（2）与理性决策相比，非理性决策中可获取的信息更多；（3）非理性决策类似量子决策，因为它违反了贝尔 - 维格纳多面体。
