Department of Psychology, Vanderbilt University, PMB 407817, 2301 Vanderbilt Place, Nashville, TN, 37240-7817, USA.
Department of Psychology, University of London, Northampton Square, London, EC1V 0HB, UK.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2018 Aug;25(4):1517-1525. doi: 10.3758/s13423-017-1371-z.
Are our everyday judgments about the world around us normative? Decades of research in the judgment and decision-making literature suggest the answer is no. If people's judgments do not follow normative rules, then what rules if any do they follow? Quantum probability theory is a promising new approach to modeling human behavior that is at odds with normative, classical rules. One key advantage of using quantum theory is that it explains multiple types of judgment errors using the same basic machinery, unifying what have previously been thought of as disparate phenomena. In this article, we test predictions from quantum theory related to the co-occurrence of two classic judgment phenomena, order effects and conjunction fallacies, using judgments about real-world events (related to the U.S. presidential primaries). We also show that our data obeys two a priori and parameter free constraints derived from quantum theory. Further, we examine two factors that moderate the effects, cognitive thinking style (as measured by the Cognitive Reflection Test) and political ideology.
我们对周围世界的日常判断是否具有规范性？判断和决策文献中的数十年研究表明，答案是否定的。如果人们的判断不遵循规范规则，那么他们遵循什么规则（如果有的话）？量子概率论是一种有前途的新方法，可以对人类行为进行建模，这种方法与规范性的经典规则不一致。使用量子理论的一个关键优势是，它使用相同的基本机制解释了多种类型的判断错误，从而统一了以前被认为是不同的现象。在本文中，我们使用与美国总统初选相关的现实世界事件判断来检验与两个经典判断现象（顺序效应和合取谬误）同时出现的量子理论预测。我们还表明，我们的数据符合从量子理论得出的两个先验且无参数约束。此外，我们还研究了两个因素，认知思维方式（由认知反射测试衡量）和政治意识形态，这两个因素会调节这些影响。
