Department of Probability and Statistics, IIMAS, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City 04510, Mexico.
Department of Mathematics and IMAC, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, 12006 Castellón, Spain.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 4;17(23):9055. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17239055.
The principal objective of this article is to assess the possible association between the number of COVID-19 infected cases and the concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O), atmospheric pollutants related to people's mobility in urban areas, taking also into account the effect of meteorological conditions. We fit a generalized linear mixed model which includes spatial and temporal terms in order to detect the effect of the meteorological elements and COVID-19 infected cases on the pollutant concentrations. We consider nine counties of the state of New York which registered the highest number of COVID-19 infected cases. We implemented a Bayesian method using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) with a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The results emphasize that all the components used in designing the model contribute to improving the predicted values and can be included in designing similar real-world data (RWD) models. We found only a weak association between PM and ozone concentrations with COVID-19 infected cases. Records of COVID-19 infected cases and other covariates data from March to May 2020 were collected from electronic health records (EHRs) and standard RWD sources.
本文的主要目的是评估与城市地区人们流动性相关的大气污染物(细颗粒物 (PM) 和臭氧 (O))的浓度与 COVID-19 感染病例数量之间的可能关联,同时考虑到气象条件的影响。我们拟合了一个广义线性混合模型,其中包括时空项,以检测气象要素和 COVID-19 感染病例对污染物浓度的影响。我们考虑了纽约州的九个县,这些县的 COVID-19 感染病例数量最高。我们使用带有随机偏微分方程 (SPDE) 的集成嵌套拉普拉斯逼近 (INLA) 实现了贝叶斯方法。结果强调,模型设计中使用的所有组件都有助于提高预测值,并可用于设计类似的真实世界数据 (RWD) 模型。我们仅发现 COVID-19 感染病例与 PM 和臭氧浓度之间存在微弱关联。从电子健康记录 (EHR) 和标准 RWD 来源收集了 2020 年 3 月至 5 月的 COVID-19 感染病例记录和其他协变量数据。