Evaluation of the lifetime brain/central nervous system cancer risk associated with childhood head CT scanning in Japan.

The use of computed tomography (CT) scanning has increased worldwide over the decades, and Japan is one of the leading countries in annual frequency of diagnostic CT. Although benefits of CT scan are undisputable, concerns have been raised about potential health effects of ionizing radiation exposure from CT, particularly among children who are likely more susceptible to radiation than adults. Our study aims to evaluate the cumulated lifetime risk of the brain/central nervous system (CNS) cancer due to head CT examinations performed on Japanese children at age 0 to 10 years in 2012, 2015 and 2018. The frequency and dose distribution of head CT examinations were estimated based on information from recent national statistics and nationwide surveys. The lifetime risk attributable to exposure was calculated by applying risk models based on the study of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. In contrast to the overall increasing trend, the frequency of childhood CT, especially at age < 5, was decreasing, reflecting a growing awareness for efforts to reduce childhood CT exposure over the past decade. In 2018, 138 532 head CT examinations were performed at age 0 to 10, which would consequently induce a lifetime excess of 22 cases (1 per 6300 scans) of brain/CNS cancers, accounting for 5% of the total cases. More excess cases were estimated among men than among women, and excess cases could emerge at relatively young ages. These results would have useful implications as scientific basis for future large-scale epidemiological studies and also as quantitative evidence to justify the benefits of CT vs risks in Japan.