College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Nov 6;18(21):11652. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182111652.
Wet-dry encounters between basins and regions have an important impact on the allocation of water resources. This study proposes a multi-objective allocation model for basin water resources under full probability scenarios considering wet-dry encounters (FPS-MOWAM) to solve the problem of basin water resource allocation. In the FPS-MOWAM model, the sub-regions were merged by precipitation correlation analysis. Next, the joint probability distribution of basin runoff and region precipitation was constructed using copula functions. The possible wet-dry encounter scenarios and their probabilities were then acquired. Finally, the multi-objective allocation model of water resources was constructed using the full probability scenario for wet-dry encounters in each region. The FPS-MOWAM is calculated by the NSGA-II algorithm and the optimal water resource allocation scheme was selected using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Using the Yellow River Basin as an example, the following conclusions were obtained: (1) the Yellow River Basin can be divided into four sub-regions based on precipitation correlations: Qh-Sc (Qinghai, Sichuan), Sg-Nx-Nmg (Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia), Sxq-Sxj (Shaanxi, Shanxi), and Hn-Sd (Henan, Shandong), (2) the inconsistencies in synchronous-asynchronous encounter probabilities in the Yellow River Basin were significant (the asynchronous probabilities were 0.763), whereas the asynchronous probabilities among the four regions were 0.632, 0.932, and 0.763 under the high, medium, and low flow conditions in the Yellow River Basin respectively, and (3) the allocation of water resources tends to increase with time, allocating the most during dry years. In 2035, the expected economic benefits are between 11,982.7 billion CNY and 12,499.6 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 2.02% and 3.43%. In 2050, the expected economic benefits are between 21,291.4 billion CNY and 21,781.3 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 1.28% and 6.05%.
干湿遭遇对流域和区域间的水资源分配有重要影响。本研究提出了一种考虑干湿遭遇的全概率情景下流域水资源多目标分配模型（FPS-MOWAM），以解决流域水资源分配问题。在 FPS-MOWAM 模型中，通过降水相关分析对分区进行合并。然后，利用 copula 函数构建流域径流量和区域降水的联合概率分布。接着，获取可能的干湿遭遇情景及其概率。最后，利用各区域全概率干湿遭遇情景构建水资源多目标分配模型。采用 NSGA-II 算法计算 FPS-MOWAM，并采用模糊综合评价法选择最优水资源分配方案。以黄河流域为例，得到以下结论：（1）基于降水相关性，黄河流域可分为四个分区：Qh-Sc（青海、四川）、Sg-Nx-Nmg（甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古）、Sxq-Sxj（陕西、山西）和 Hn-Sd（河南、山东）；（2）黄河流域同步-异步遭遇概率的不一致性显著（异步概率为 0.763），而在黄河流域高、中、低三种来水条件下，四个区域的异步概率分别为 0.632、0.932 和 0.763；（3）水资源分配随时间推移而增加，在枯水年分配最多。2035 年，期望经济效益在 11982.7 亿至 12499.6 亿元人民币之间，预期缺水率在 2.02%至 3.43%之间。2050 年，期望经济效益在 21291.4 亿至 21781.3 亿元人民币之间，预期缺水率在 1.28%至 6.05%之间。
