Mærsk McKinney Møller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Department of Mathematics, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Sci Rep. 2020 Dec 28;10(1):22386. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79352-5.
This paper presents a study of early epidemiological assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Indonesia. The aim is to quantify heterogeneity in the numbers of secondary infections. To this end, we estimate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the overdispersion parameter [Formula: see text] at two regions in Indonesia: Jakarta-Depok and Batam. The method to estimate [Formula: see text] is based on a sequential Bayesian method, while the parameter [Formula: see text] is estimated by fitting the secondary case data with a negative binomial distribution. Based on the first 1288 confirmed cases collected from both regions, we find a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is estimated at 6.79 and 2.47, while the overdispersion parameter [Formula: see text] of a negative-binomial distribution is estimated at 0.06 and 0.2 for Jakarta-Depok and Batam, respectively. This suggests that superspreading events played a key role in the early stage of the outbreak, i.e., a small number of infected individuals are responsible for large numbers of COVID-19 transmission. This finding can be used to determine effective public measures, such as rapid isolation and identification, which are critical since delay of diagnosis is the most common cause of superspreading events.
本文研究了 COVID-19 在印度尼西亚的早期流行病学传播动态。目的是量化二次感染数量的异质性。为此，我们估计了印度尼西亚两个地区雅加达-德波克和巴淡的基本繁殖数[Formula: see text]和过分散参数[Formula: see text]。估计[Formula: see text]的方法基于序贯贝叶斯方法，而参数[Formula: see text]则通过将二次病例数据与负二项式分布拟合来估计。基于两个地区收集的前 1288 例确诊病例，我们发现个体间的传播存在高度变异。基本繁殖数[Formula: see text]分别估计为 6.79 和 2.47，而雅加达-德波克和巴淡的负二项式分布的过分散参数[Formula: see text]分别估计为 0.06 和 0.2。这表明超级传播事件在疫情早期阶段发挥了关键作用，即少数感染个体负责大量 COVID-19 的传播。这一发现可用于确定有效的公共措施，例如快速隔离和识别，因为诊断延迟是超级传播事件的最常见原因。
