Lawrence Technological University, 21000 W 10 Mile Rd., Southfield, MI 48075, USA.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Nov 10;17(6):7892-7915. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020401.
We introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of qualitative behavior-no and . We also demonstrate that the model can produce transient and sustained waves of infection consistent with secondary outbreaks. We fit the model to cumulative COVID-19 case and mortality data from several regions. Our analysis suggests that regions which experience a significant decline after the first wave of infection, such as Canada and Israel, are more likely to contain secondary waves of infection, whereas regions which only achieve moderate success in mitigating the disease's spread initially, such as the United States, are likely to experience substantial secondary waves or uncontrolled outbreaks.
我们引入了一个新的建模框架，将对感染的恐惧和对社交距离的挫败感纳入疾病动态模型中。我们表明，由此产生的 SEIR 行为感知模型具有三种主要的行为模式，即没有恐惧和挫败感、高恐惧和挫败感、低恐惧和挫败感。我们还证明，该模型可以产生与继发感染一致的感染的暂态和持续波。我们将模型拟合到来自几个地区的累积 COVID-19 病例和死亡率数据。我们的分析表明，在经历第一波感染后显著下降的地区，如加拿大和以色列，更有可能出现继发感染波，而在最初控制疾病传播方面只取得适度成功的地区，如美国，则更有可能出现大规模的继发波或失控的爆发。
