Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea.
Natural Product Informatics Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul, Gangneung, South Korea.
PLoS One. 2022 Sep 1;17(9):e0273964. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273964. eCollection 2022.
In a long-lasting major disease outbreak such as that of COVID-19, the challenge for public health authorities is to keep people motivated and keen on following safety guidelines. In this study, a compartmental model with a heterogeneous transmission rate (based on awareness) is utilized to hypothesize about the public adoption of preventive guidelines. Three subsequent outbreaks in South Korea, Pakistan, and Japan were analyzed as case studies. The transmission, behavior change, and behavioral change ease rates of the disease were measured in these countries. The parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with an additional identifiability analysis performed to determine the uniqueness of the estimated parameters for quantitatively comparing them during the first three waves of COVID-19. The mathematical analysis and simulation results show that individual responses had a significant effect on the outbreak. Individuals declining to follow the public health guidelines in Korea and Japan between the second and third waves contributed to making the third peak the highest of the three peaks. In Pakistan, however, individual responses to following public health guidelines were maintained between the second and third waves, resulting in the third peak being lower than the first, rather than being associated with the highest transmission rate. Thus, maintaining a high level of awareness is critical for containing the spread. Improvised public health campaigns are recommended to sustain individual attention and maintain a high level of awareness.
在 COVID-19 等长期重大疾病爆发期间，公共卫生当局面临的挑战是保持人们的积极性并热衷于遵循安全指南。在这项研究中，利用具有异质传播率（基于意识）的隔室模型来假设公众对预防指南的采用。对韩国、巴基斯坦和日本的随后三次爆发进行了案例分析。测量了这些国家的疾病传播、行为改变和行为改变缓解率。使用最大似然法估计参数，并进行了额外的可识别性分析，以确定估计参数的唯一性，以便在 COVID-19 的前三个波次中对其进行定量比较。数学分析和模拟结果表明，个体反应对疫情爆发有重大影响。韩国和日本的个人在第二波和第三波之间拒绝遵守公共卫生指南，导致第三波成为三个波次中的最高波次。然而，在巴基斯坦，个人在第二波和第三波之间遵守公共卫生指南的反应得以维持，导致第三波的峰值低于第一波，而不是与最高传播率相关。因此，保持高度的意识对于控制传播至关重要。建议开展即兴公共卫生运动，以保持个人关注并维持高度的意识。
