Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;27(2):411-420. doi: 10.3201/eid2702.202999. Epub 2021 Jan 4.
Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.
自 2009 年流感大流行以来，荷兰一直使用每周死亡监测系统来估计超出预期的死亡人数。我们报告了当前冠状病毒病（COVID-19）流行期间和之前 10 次流感流行期间的超额死亡估计数。每次流感流行的超额死亡人数平均为 4000 人。在 2020 年 COVID-19 流行的第 12-19 周，估计有 9554 例超额死亡（超额死亡 41%），与 2017-18 年严重流感流行期间的 9373 例超额死亡（18%）相当。然而，这些死亡发生的时间更短，峰值更高，并且通过非药物控制措施得到缓解。超额死亡是报告的实验室确诊 COVID-19 死亡人数（5449 例）的 1.8 倍。根据超额死亡和血清流行病学研究的初步结果，我们估计感染死亡率为 1%。监测超额死亡对于及时估计流感和 COVID-19 的疾病负担至关重要。我们的数据补充了实验室确诊 COVID-19 死亡报告，并使我们能够对不同的流行进行比较。
