Department of Biomedical Molecular Biology, Ghent University, and VIB Inflammation Research Center , Ghent, Belgium.
Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine & Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, UAE, and Department of Nephrology, Lund University , Lund, Sweden.
Libyan J Med. 2021 Dec;16(1):1871798. doi: 10.1080/19932820.2021.1871798.
The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Libya on 24/3/2020, and about 2 months later, the number of reported COVID-19 cases started to increase notably. The outbreak was first prominent in the southern region (Sabha) and then spread to the western and eastern parts of Libya. By 24/12/2020, the reported total number of deaths from COVID-19 reached 1415. There seems to be no published data on the size of the epidemic in Libya. Here, we estimated the number of Libyans exposed to COVID-19 by using a COVID-19 mortality adjusted mathematical model for the spread of infectious diseases. We estimated that 14-20% of the Libyan population have been exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the risk of spread of COVID-19 infections during the coming months is high, and a considerable number of Libyans, particularly the elderly and people with chronic diseases, should be protected against COVID-19 infection. This is particularly urgent in the light of unofficial reports that the relevant healthcare facilities are under extreme stress.
2020 年 3 月 24 日，利比亚首次报告了 COVID-19 病例，大约两个月后，报告的 COVID-19 病例数量开始显著增加。疫情首先在南部地区（塞卜哈）显著，然后蔓延到利比亚西部和东部。截至 2020 年 12 月 24 日，报告的 COVID-19 死亡总人数已达 1415 人。似乎没有关于利比亚疫情规模的公开数据。在这里，我们使用 COVID-19 传染病传播的死亡率调整数学模型，估计了接触 COVID-19 的利比亚人数。我们估计，14-20%的利比亚人口接触过 COVID-19 大流行。因此，未来几个月 COVID-19 感染传播的风险很高，相当一部分利比亚人，特别是老年人和患有慢性病的人，应该预防 COVID-19 感染。鉴于有关医疗设施压力极大的非官方报告，这一点尤为紧迫。
