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在韩国这个在新冠疫情期间从未实施封锁的国家,尽管人口流动性有所反弹,但仍保持低繁殖数。

Keeping Low Reproductive Number Despite the Rebound Population Mobility in Korea, a Country Never under Lockdown during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

作者信息

Kim Soyoung, Kim Yae-Jean, Peck Kyong Ran, Ko Youngsuk, Lee Jonggul, Jung Eunok

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea.

Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 06351, Korea.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Dec 20;17(24):9551. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17249551.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph17249551
PMID:33419347
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7765860/
Abstract

Nonpharmaceutical intervention has been one of the most important strategies to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in the communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Korea has a unique experience that we had the first large outbreak during the early pandemic and could flatten the epidemic curve without lockdown. In this study, the effective reproductive numbers were calculated for the entire nation and Seoul (the capital city) Metropolitan Area from February 16-15 July, where 60% of the population reside. We compared the changes in population mobility data and reproductive number trends according to the changes in the government's nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy. The total daily mobility decreased when Korea had the first wave of a large outbreak in February-March 2020, which was mainly caused by the decrease of daily noncommuting mobility. However, daily commuting mobility from 16 February to 30 June 2020 was maintained at a similar level since there was no national lockdown for workers who commute between home and work. During the first half-year of 2020, Korea could control the outbreak to a manageable level without a significant decrease in daily public mobility. However, it may be only possible when the public follows personal hygiene principles and social distancing without crisis fatigue or reduced compliance.

摘要

在新冠疫情期间,非药物干预一直是社区预防新冠病毒传播的最重要策略之一。韩国有着独特的经历,即在疫情初期经历了首次大规模疫情爆发,并且在没有实施封锁的情况下成功平缓了疫情曲线。在本研究中,计算了2月16日至7月15日期间全国以及首尔(首都)大都市区(居住着60%的人口)的有效繁殖数。我们根据政府非药物干预策略的变化,比较了人口流动数据的变化和繁殖数趋势。2020年2月至3月韩国首次出现大规模疫情爆发时,每日总流动量下降,这主要是由于每日非通勤流动量的减少。然而,2020年2月16日至6月30日期间的每日通勤流动量保持在类似水平,因为对于往返于家和工作地点之间的通勤者没有实施全国性封锁。在2020年上半年,韩国能够将疫情控制在可管理的水平,而每日公共流动量没有显著下降。然而,这可能只有在公众遵循个人卫生原则和保持社交距离,且没有危机疲劳或依从性降低的情况下才有可能实现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/d375c43df661/ijerph-17-09551-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/e03a2035047e/ijerph-17-09551-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/7b389b95b244/ijerph-17-09551-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/a8580b2dd660/ijerph-17-09551-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/d375c43df661/ijerph-17-09551-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/e03a2035047e/ijerph-17-09551-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/7b389b95b244/ijerph-17-09551-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/a8580b2dd660/ijerph-17-09551-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf2e/7765860/d375c43df661/ijerph-17-09551-g004.jpg

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