Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 8;11(1):171. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79606-2.
Smoking has a substantial impact on deaths from non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). Quantitatively measuring the impact of tobacco control on population health is of great theoretical and practical importance, for governments to make health policy decisions. Focusing on premature deaths, we predicted the deaths by 2030 from major NCDs caused by smoking among people aged 30-69 years in Sichuan Province, Southwest China. We extracted data for 1990-2015 from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 and calculated the population attributable fraction, to estimate the proportion of deaths caused by smoking. Four different tobacco control standards were used to estimate 2030 projections for the prevalence of smoking and premature mortality. If smoking prevalence were reduced by 30% from 2015 levels, premature mortality could be expected to decline by 24.4% in 2030, achieving 81.3% of the World Health Organization target for reducing premature mortality by 30%. Compared with the continuation of historical trends, the strongest tobacco control policy scenario would reduce premature mortality by 6.6%, prevent 23,600 deaths, reduce mortality by 7.8%, and increase life expectancy at birth by 0.3 years. Smoking bans represent an important action toward achieving national health goals.
吸烟对非传染性慢性疾病（NCD）导致的死亡有重大影响。定量衡量烟草控制对人口健康的影响，对于政府制定卫生政策决策具有重要的理论和实际意义。本文聚焦于过早死亡，预测了中国西南部四川省 30-69 岁人群因吸烟导致的主要 NCD 死亡人数。我们从 2015 年全球疾病负担研究中提取了 1990-2015 年的数据，并计算了人群归因分数，以估计因吸烟导致的死亡比例。我们使用了四种不同的烟草控制标准来估算 2030 年吸烟和早逝的流行率预测。如果吸烟流行率从 2015 年的水平降低 30%，那么 2030 年早逝人数预计将下降 24.4%，实现世界卫生组织降低 30%早逝率目标的 81.3%。与延续历史趋势相比，最强有力的烟草控制政策方案将使早逝人数减少 6.6%，预防 23600 人死亡，死亡率降低 7.8%，并使出生时的预期寿命延长 0.3 年。禁烟令是实现国家健康目标的重要行动。
