Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Sichuan Center of Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China.
Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
BMC Public Health. 2020 Mar 29;20(1):406. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-8377-6.
Hypertension is highly prevalent and is the primary risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). While declining in some developed countries, it is increasing rapidly in some developing countries. Sichuan province is the largest and underdeveloped region in southwest China, with 486 thousand square kilometers, more than 80 million residents, unbalanced economic development, and high prevalence, low awareness, low treatment and low control rate of hypertension. We forecasted the death burden due to high systolic blood pressure (SBP) in Sichuan from 1990 to 2030, to raise the awareness of public and government of the importance and benefits of hypertension control.
We conducted secondary analysis based on data of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2015, and predicted the population SBP level, population attributable fraction, and death burden for people aged 30-69 under different scenarios in 2030.
Comparing with natural trend, if the prevalence of high SBP can be reduced relatively by 25% by 2030, the deaths of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs), CVD and CKD would be reduced by 27.1 thousand, 26.2 thousand and 0.8 thousand for people aged 30-69; the mortality would be reduced by 10.8, 32.8 and 16.0%; and the premature mortality would be reduced by 9.9, 32.0 and 16.0%, respectively.
Controlling or decreasing the prevalence of high SBP can significantly reduce the deaths, death rate and premature mortality of NCDs, CVD and CKD for the 30-69 years old population in Sichuan. There would be huge benefits for the governments to take cost-effective measures to control or reduce the prevalence of hypertension.
高血压患病率高，是心血管疾病（CVD）和慢性肾脏病（CKD）的主要危险因素。虽然在一些发达国家呈下降趋势，但在一些发展中国家却迅速上升。四川省是中国西南地区最大、最不发达的省份，面积 48.6 万平方公里，人口超过 8000 万，经济发展不平衡，高血压患病率高、知晓率低、治疗率低、控制率低。我们预测了 1990 年至 2030 年四川省因收缩压升高导致的死亡负担，以提高公众和政府对高血压控制重要性和益处的认识。
我们基于全球疾病负担（GBD）1990-2015 年的数据进行二次分析，并预测了 2030 年不同情景下 30-69 岁人群的 SBP 水平、人群归因分数和死亡负担。
与自然趋势相比，如果 2030 年高 SBP 的患病率能相对降低 25%，30-69 岁人群的非传染性慢性病（NCD）、CVD 和 CKD 的死亡人数将分别减少 27100、26200 和 800；死亡率将分别降低 10.8%、32.8%和 16.0%；早死人数将分别减少 9.9%、32.0%和 16.0%。
控制或降低高 SBP 的患病率可以显著降低四川省 30-69 岁人群 NCD、CVD 和 CKD 的死亡人数、死亡率和早死率。政府采取具有成本效益的措施控制或降低高血压的患病率将带来巨大的收益。
