School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Centre, Fort Worth, TX, 76107, USA.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 12;11(1):751. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-80432-9.
The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.
世界卫生组织的报告经常强调气候变化对全球疟疾的影响。我们对 2000 年至 2016 年赞比亚的社会环境数据集进行了建模，以对抗疟疾趋势，并使用贝叶斯时空和负二项式混合回归模型研究了近期环境变化与疟疾发病率的关系。我们引入了日较差（DTR）作为广泛使用的平均温度的替代环境测量方法。我们发现疟疾发病率趋势存在大量的次国家近期变化，与疟疾发病率有显著关联。DTR/环境预测因子的显著时空变化会影响疟疾发病率，即使在发病率呈下降趋势的地区也是如此。我们强调了季节性敏感的 DTR 的影响，特别是在一年的前两个季度，并展示了近因气候变化如何对干预计划产生重大影响，特别是自 2010 年以来。我们主张针对季节性敏感的疟疾化学预防计划。
