Wageningen University, Biometris, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la Protezione Sostenibile Delle Piante, Bari, via Amendola 122/D, Bari, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 13;11(1):1061. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79279-x.
In 2013, Xylella fastidiosa spp. pauca was first reported in Puglia, Italy, causing the olive quick decline syndrome (OQDS). Since then the disease has spread, prompting the initiation of management measures to contain the outbreak. Estimates of the shape of the disease front and the rate of area expansion are needed to inform management, e.g. the delineation of buffer zones. However, empirical estimates of the invasion front and the rate of spread of OQDS are not available. Here, we analysed the hundreds of thousands of records of monitoring data on disease occurrence in Puglia to estimate the shape of the invasion front and the rate of movement of the front. The robustness of estimation was checked using simulation. The shape of the front was best fitted by a logistic function while using a beta-binomial error distribution to model variability around the expected proportion of infected trees. The estimated rate of movement of the front was 10.0 km per year (95% confidence interval: 7.5-12.5 km per year). This rate of movement is at the upper limit of previous expert judgements. The shape of the front was flatter than expected. The fitted model indicates that the disease spread started approximately in 2008. This analysis underpins projections of further disease spread and the need for preparedness in areas that are still disease free.
2013 年，韧皮部坏死病菌（Xylella fastidiosa spp. pauca）在意大利普利亚首次被报道，导致了橄榄快速衰落综合征（OQDS）。此后，该病已蔓延，促使采取管理措施来控制疫情。需要估计疾病前沿的形状和区域扩展的速度，以为管理提供信息，例如缓冲区的划定。然而，OQDS 疾病前沿的入侵和传播速度的经验估计值尚不可用。在这里，我们分析了普利亚监测疾病发生的数十万条记录，以估计入侵前沿的形状和前沿的移动速度。使用模拟检查了估计的稳健性。前沿的形状最好通过逻辑函数拟合，同时使用贝塔二项式误差分布来模拟感染树木的预期比例周围的变异性。前沿的估计移动速度为每年 10.0 公里（95%置信区间：每年 7.5-12.5 公里）。这个移动速度是之前专家判断的上限。前沿的形状比预期的平坦。拟合模型表明，疾病传播大约始于 2008 年。该分析为进一步疾病传播的预测和在尚无疾病的地区做好准备提供了依据。
