Value of contrast-enhanced computerized tomography in the early diagnosis and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. A prospective study of 202 patients.

Two hundred two patients admitted with the clinical suspicion of acute pancreatitis underwent computerized tomography scanning within 36 hours of admission. The diagnostic value of the computerized tomography findings was excellent, with a sensitivity of 92 percent and a specificity of 100 percent. One hundred seventy-six patients with acute pancreatitis defined according to the overall clinical course were included in the prognostic study. The pancreatitis was fatal in 21 patients, severe in 47 patients, and mild in 108 patients. The computerized tomography findings were classified into the following three groups on the basis of the extent of phlegmonous extrapancreatic spread: Group I, no phlegmonous extrapancreatic spread (100 patients, none died); Group II, phlegmonous extrapancreatic spread in one or two areas (28 patients, mortality rate 4 percent); and Group III, phlegmonous extrapancreatic spread in three or more areas (48 patients, mortality rate 42 percent) (p less than 0.0001). The following three scores from prognostic clinical and laboratory data were also obtained: Score 1, zero or one positive sign (82 patients, none died); Score 2, two to four positive signs (54 patients, mortality rate 13 percent); Score 3, five or more positive signs (40 patients, mortality rate 35 percent) (p less than 0.001). The combination of computerized tomography findings and prognostic signs had the best predictive value. Patients in Group III, Score 3 (24 patients) or Group III, Score 2 (19 patients) had mortality rates of 58 percent and 32 percent, respectively, and complications developed in all of the survivors. In addition, all except two acute pancreatitis patients in whom pancreatic abscess developed were found in Group III (p less than 0.0001). Furthermore, for Group III patients, the prediction of death associated with abscesses was enhanced by the number of prognostic signs. The mortality rate increased from 17 percent for Score 2 patients to 81 percent for Score 3 patients (p = 0.0078). As a result of this study, we recommend early computerized tomography for all Score 2 and Score 3 patients, since it allows prompt recognition of patients at high risk for systemic and local complications. Adequate therapy can then be directed to the group of patients to whom it is best suited. Serial computerized tomographies should be reserved for those patients presenting with phlegmonous extrapancreatic spread.