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新冠疫情封锁措施的好坏与弊端。

The good, the bad and the ugly of lockdowns during Covid-19.

机构信息

School of Economics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa.

School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Jan 22;16(1):e0245546. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245546. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Amidst the rapid global spread of Covid-19, many governments enforced country-wide lockdowns, with likely severe well-being consequences. In this regard, South Africa is an extreme case suffering from low levels of well-being, but at the same time enforcing very strict lockdown regulations. In this study, we analyse the causal effect of a lockdown and consequently, the determinants of happiness during the aforementioned. A difference-in-difference approach is used to make causal inferences on the lockdown effect on happiness, and an OLS estimation investigates the determinants of happiness after lockdown. The results show that the lockdown had a significant and negative impact on happiness. In analysing the determinants of happiness after lockdown, we found that stay-at-home orders have positively impacted happiness during this period. On the other hand, other lockdown regulations such as a ban on alcohol sales, a fear of becoming unemployed and a greater reliance on social media have negative effects, culminating in a net loss in happiness. Interestingly, Covid-19, proxied by new deaths per day, had an inverted U-shape relationship with happiness. Seemingly people were, at the onset of Covid-19 positive and optimistic about the low fatality rates and the high recovery rates. However, as the pandemic progressed, they became more concerned, and this relationship changed and became negative, with peoples' happiness decreasing as the number of new deaths increased.

摘要

在新冠疫情迅速在全球蔓延之际,许多国家实施了全国范围的封锁措施,这可能会对民众的福祉产生严重影响。在这方面,南非是一个极端案例,其福祉水平较低,但同时又实施了非常严格的封锁规定。在这项研究中,我们分析了封锁措施的因果效应,以及在此期间幸福感的决定因素。我们使用双重差分法对封锁对幸福感的影响进行因果推断,并使用 OLS 估计法研究封锁后幸福感的决定因素。结果表明,封锁对幸福感产生了显著的负面影响。在分析封锁后幸福感的决定因素时,我们发现居家令对这期间的幸福感产生了积极影响。另一方面,其他封锁规定,如禁止售酒、对失业的恐惧以及对社交媒体的更大依赖,都产生了负面影响,导致幸福感净损失。有趣的是,新冠疫情(以每日新增死亡人数为代理变量)与幸福感呈倒 U 型关系。似乎在新冠疫情初期,人们对低死亡率和高治愈率持乐观态度。然而,随着疫情的发展,人们变得更加担忧,这种关系发生了变化,变得负面,随着新增死亡人数的增加,人们的幸福感下降。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0c96/7822257/db3a22a54e2a/pone.0245546.g001.jpg

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