From the Division of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
Sex Transm Dis. 2021 Apr 1;48(4):247-252. doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0000000000001364.
Syphilis is a genital ulcerative disease caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum that is associated with significant complications if left untreated and can facilitate the transmission and acquisition of HIV infection. The last prevalence and incidence estimates of the burden of syphilis in the United States were for 2008.
We generate syphilis prevalence and incidence estimates for 2018 among adults aged 14 to 49 years. We fit a simple mathematical model to 2018 case report data to generate 10,000 sets of estimates for age and sex subpopulations and summarize our estimates by their median (50th percentile); uncertainty intervals are characterized by their 25th (Q1) and 75th (Q3) percentiles. We also used our methodology to reestimate 2008 prevalence and incidence estimates.
In 2018, there were an estimated 156,000 (Q1, 132,000; Q3, 184,000) prevalent and 146,000 (Q1, 126,000; Q3, 170,000) incident syphilitic infections in people aged 14 to 49 years. Men accounted for roughly 70% of prevalent infections and more than 80% of incident infections. In both sexes, there were more prevalent and incident infections in 25- to 49-year-olds than 14- to 24-year-olds. Using these methods to reanalyze 2008 data, syphilis prevalence and incidence estimates have increased 164% and 175%, respectively, between 2008 and 2018.
Although not as common as other sexually transmitted infections, syphilis should be monitored because of its devastating sequelae. As it continues to increase in frequency, it will be important for future work to continue to track its trajectory and burden.
梅毒是一种由苍白密螺旋体引起的生殖器溃疡性疾病，如果不治疗，会导致严重的并发症，并促进 HIV 感染的传播和获得。美国最后一次对梅毒负担的流行率和发病率的估计是在 2008 年。
我们为 2018 年 14 至 49 岁的成年人生成梅毒流行率和发病率的估计。我们拟合了一个简单的数学模型，以 2018 年的病例报告数据为基础，为年龄和性别亚群生成了 10000 组估计值，并通过中位数（第 50 个百分位数）对我们的估计值进行了总结；不确定性区间的特征是第 25 个（Q1）和第 75 个（Q3）百分位数。我们还使用我们的方法重新估计了 2008 年的流行率和发病率。
2018 年，14 至 49 岁人群中估计有 156000 例（Q1，132000；Q3，184000）现患和 146000 例（Q1，126000；Q3，170000）新发梅毒感染。男性约占现患感染的 70%，占新发感染的 80%以上。在两性中，25 至 49 岁的人群中现患和新发感染的人数都多于 14 至 24 岁的人群。使用这些方法重新分析 2008 年的数据，梅毒的流行率和发病率估计在 2008 年至 2018 年间分别增加了 164%和 175%。
尽管梅毒不像其他性传播感染那样常见，但由于其破坏性的后果，仍应进行监测。随着其频率的不断增加，未来的工作将继续跟踪其轨迹和负担，这一点非常重要。
