印度现役及规划中燃煤电厂的死亡人数影响。
The mortality impacts of current and planned coal-fired power plants in India.
机构信息
Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742;
Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Feb 2;118(5). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2017936118.
We examine the health implications of electricity generation from the 2018 stock of coal-fired power plants in India, as well as the health impacts of the expansion in coal-fired generation capacity expected to occur by 2030. We estimate emissions of SO, NO, and particulate matter 2.5 μm (PM) for each plant and use a chemical transport model to estimate the impact of power plant emissions on ambient PM Concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) are used to project the impacts of changes in PM on mortality. Current plus planned plants will contribute, on average, 13% of ambient PM in India. This reflects large absolute contributions to PM in central India and parts of the Indo-Gangetic plain (up to 20 μg/m). In the south of India, coal-fired power plants account for 20-25% of ambient PM We estimate 112,000 deaths are attributable annually to current plus planned coal-fired power plants. Not building planned plants would avoid at least 844,000 premature deaths over the life of these plants. Imposing a tax on electricity that reflects these local health benefits would incentivize the adoption of renewable energy.
我们考察了 2018 年印度燃煤电厂存量发电对健康的影响，以及到 2030 年预计增加的燃煤发电能力对健康的影响。我们估算了每座电厂的 SO、NO 和 2.5μm 颗粒物（PM）排放量，并使用化学输送模型来估算电厂排放对环境 PM 浓度的影响。2019 年全球疾病负担研究（GBD）的浓度-反应函数用于预测 PM 变化对死亡率的影响。现有和计划中的电厂平均将贡献印度环境 PM 的 13%。这反映了印度中部和印度-恒河平原部分地区（高达 20μg/m）的 PM 绝对排放量很大。在印度南部，燃煤电厂占环境 PM 的 20-25%。我们估计，目前和计划中的燃煤电厂每年导致 11.2 万人死亡。在这些电厂的生命周期内，不建设计划中的电厂至少可以避免 84.4 万人过早死亡。对反映这些地方健康效益的电力征收税款，将鼓励采用可再生能源。
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