University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(22):27712-27730. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-12178-w. Epub 2021 Jan 29.
The amount of CO embodied in trade has substantially increased over the last decades. We contribute to understanding the reasons for this evolution by studying the trends and some drivers of the carbon intensity of trade over the period 1995-2009 in 41 countries and 35 sectors. Our empirical analysis relies on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to compute embodied carbon emissions. Our main findings are the following. First, average emission intensity of traded goods is higher than average emission intensity of final demand. Second, relatively "dirty" countries tend to specialize in emission-intensive sectors. Third, the share of goods produced in emission-intensive countries is rising. Finally, we find that coal abundance (measured as fuel rent and controlling for reverse causality) leads both to a specialization in "dirty" sectors and to an increase in emissions per output when controlling for sector structure, which amounts to a fossil fuel endowment effect. These findings suggest trade liberalization may increase global emissions and therefore highlight the importance of considering trade when designing CO reduction strategies.
过去几十年来，贸易隐含的二氧化碳排放量大幅增加。我们通过研究 1995 年至 2009 年期间 41 个国家和 35 个行业的贸易碳强度的趋势和一些驱动因素，来帮助理解这种演变的原因。我们的实证分析依赖于世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）来计算隐含碳排放量。我们的主要发现如下。首先，贸易商品的平均排放强度高于最终需求的平均排放强度。其次，相对“污染”的国家往往专业化于排放密集型部门。第三，在排放密集型国家生产的商品的份额正在上升。最后，我们发现，煤炭丰度（以燃料租金衡量，并控制反向因果关系）既导致“污染”部门的专业化，也导致在控制部门结构时每产出排放的增加，这相当于化石燃料禀赋效应。这些发现表明，贸易自由化可能会增加全球排放量，因此突出了在设计 CO 减排策略时考虑贸易的重要性。
