School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 555 Liutai Avenue, Chengdu, 611130, China.
School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 777 Guoding Rd, Shanghai, 200433, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15;344:118681. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118681. Epub 2023 Aug 4.
This study analyzed the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission effect embodied in the Sino-USA manufacturing trade. We constructed a trade and carbon emission input-output model for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in China and the USA from 2000 to 2018. A comprehensive empirical test of the systematic emission reduction mechanism was conducted. There were four main findings: (1) indirect and direct carbon emissions indicators can comprehensively analyze the link between production and demand across sectors; (2) indirect carbon emissions are higher than direct carbon emissions in half of the sectors in both China and the USA, and other sectors bear part of the carbon emissions for these sectors; (3) compared to 2000, the change in net exports of both countries is the main reason for the change in indirect carbon emissions, while the change in net exports of intermediate goods is the main reason for the change in direct carbon emissions; and (4) the Sino-USA trade surplus comes at the expense of China's environmental losses, while the USA obtains environmental benefits. Overall, the theoretical analytical framework not only comprehensively considers the interlinkages between production and demand across sectors but also provides a more reasonable evaluation of the environmental effects of Sino-USA trade. Additionally, this study provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for China to achieve its dual-cycle and dual-carbon goals, thus promoting the rapid transformation of China's economy toward green and high-quality development.
本研究分析了中美制造业贸易中体现的碳排放效应的理论机制。我们构建了 2000 年至 2018 年中国和美国 16 个制造业细分行业的贸易和碳排放投入产出模型。对系统减排机制进行了全面的实证检验。主要发现有四点：（1）间接和直接碳排放指标可以全面分析跨部门的生产和需求联系；（2）间接碳排放在中美两国一半的行业中高于直接碳排放，其他行业为这些行业承担部分碳排放；（3）与 2000 年相比，两国净出口的变化是间接碳排放变化的主要原因，而中间品净出口的变化是直接碳排放变化的主要原因；（4）中美贸易顺差是以中国环境损失为代价的，而美国则获得了环境效益。总的来说，理论分析框架不仅全面考虑了跨部门的生产和需求联系，而且对中美贸易的环境影响提供了更合理的评价。此外，本研究为中国实现双循环和双碳目标提供了坚实的理论和经验基础，从而促进了中国经济向绿色和高质量发展的快速转型。
