Analyzing the carbon emission effect and systematic emission reduction mechanism of the Sino-USA manufacturing trade.

This study analyzed the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission effect embodied in the Sino-USA manufacturing trade. We constructed a trade and carbon emission input-output model for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in China and the USA from 2000 to 2018. A comprehensive empirical test of the systematic emission reduction mechanism was conducted. There were four main findings: (1) indirect and direct carbon emissions indicators can comprehensively analyze the link between production and demand across sectors; (2) indirect carbon emissions are higher than direct carbon emissions in half of the sectors in both China and the USA, and other sectors bear part of the carbon emissions for these sectors; (3) compared to 2000, the change in net exports of both countries is the main reason for the change in indirect carbon emissions, while the change in net exports of intermediate goods is the main reason for the change in direct carbon emissions; and (4) the Sino-USA trade surplus comes at the expense of China's environmental losses, while the USA obtains environmental benefits. Overall, the theoretical analytical framework not only comprehensively considers the interlinkages between production and demand across sectors but also provides a more reasonable evaluation of the environmental effects of Sino-USA trade. Additionally, this study provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for China to achieve its dual-cycle and dual-carbon goals, thus promoting the rapid transformation of China's economy toward green and high-quality development.