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一项关于2019新型冠状病毒疫情未报告病例的新研究。

A new study of unreported cases of 2019-nCOV epidemic outbreaks.

作者信息

Gao Wei, Veeresha P, Baskonus Haci Mehmet, Prakasha D G, Kumar Pushpendra

机构信息

School of Information Science and Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Yunnan, China.

Department of Mathematics, Karnatak University, Dharwad-580003, India.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Sep;138:109929. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109929. Epub 2020 Jun 8.

Abstract

2019-nCOV epidemic is one of the greatest threat that the mortality faced since the World War-2 and most decisive global health calamity of the century. In this manuscript, we study the epidemic prophecy for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCOV) epidemic in Wuhan, China by using -homotopy analysis transform method (-HATM). We considered the reported case data to parameterise the model and to identify the number of unreported cases. A new analysis with the proposed epidemic 2019-nCOV model for unreported cases is effectuated. For the considered system exemplifying the model of coronavirus, the series solution is established within the frame of the Caputo derivative. The developed results are explained using figures which show the behaviour of the projected model. The results show that the used scheme is highly emphatic and easy to implementation for the system of nonlinear equations. Further, the present study can confirm the applicability and effect of fractional operators to real-world problems.

摘要

2019新型冠状病毒疫情是二战以来人类面临的最大威胁之一,也是本世纪最具决定性的全球健康灾难。在本论文中,我们运用同伦分析变换方法(-HATM)研究了中国武汉新型冠状病毒(2019-nCOV)疫情的流行预测。我们考虑了报告病例数据来对模型进行参数化,并确定未报告病例的数量。对所提出的2019-nCOV未报告病例流行模型进行了新的分析。对于所考虑的体现冠状病毒模型的系统,在卡普托导数框架内建立了级数解。利用图表对所得到的结果进行了解释,这些图表展示了预测模型的行为。结果表明,所采用的方案对于非线性方程组系统具有很强的适应性且易于实现。此外,本研究能够证实分数阶算子在实际问题中的适用性和效果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c1ec/7834535/d683e0987564/gr1_lrg.jpg

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