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孟加拉国的新冠肺炎疫情:基于时间序列对每日新增病例预测的深入展望

COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A Deeper Outlook into The Forecast with Prediction of Upcoming Per Day Cases Using Time Series.

作者信息

Mohammad Masum Abu Kaisar, Khushbu Sharun Akter, Keya Mumenunnessa, Abujar Sheikh, Hossain Syed Akhter

机构信息

Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Procedia Comput Sci. 2020;178:291-300. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2020.11.031. Epub 2020 Dec 7.

Abstract

A global pandemic on March 11th of 2020, which was initially renowned by the World Health Organization (WHO) revealed the coronavirus (the COVID-19 epidemic). Coronavirus was flown in -December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei region in China. Currently, the situation is enlarged by the infection in more than 200 countries all over the world. In this situation it was rising into huge forms in Bangladesh too. Modulated with a public dataset delivered by the IEDCR health authority, we have produced a sustainable prognostic method of COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh using a deep learning model. Throughout the research, we forecasted up to 30 days in which per day actual prediction was confirmed, death and recoveries number of people. Furthermore, we illustrated that long short-term memory (LSTM) demands the actual output trends among time series data analysis with a controversial study that exceeds random forest (RF) regression and support vector regression (SVR), which both are machine learning (ML) models. The current COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh has been considered in this paper. Here, a well-known recurrent neural network (RNN) model in order to referred by the LSTM network that has forecasted COVID-19 cases on per day infected scenario of Bangladesh from May 15th of 2020 till June 15th of 2020. Added with a comparative study that drives into the LSTM, SVR, RF regression which is processed by the RMSE transmission rate. In all respects, in Bangladesh the gravity of COVID-19 has become excessive nowadays so that depending on this situation public health sectors and common people need to be aware of this situation and also be able to get knowledge of how long self-lockdown will be maintained. So far, to the best of our knowledge LSTM based time series analysis forecasting infectious diseases is a well-done formula.

摘要

2020年3月11日,一场全球性大流行病被世界卫生组织(WHO)宣布,这就是冠状病毒(COVID-19疫情)。冠状病毒于2019年12月在中国湖北省武汉市出现。目前,全球200多个国家都出现了感染情况,疫情范围不断扩大。在这种情况下,孟加拉国的疫情也日益严重。我们利用由IEDCR卫生当局提供的公共数据集,通过深度学习模型建立了一种孟加拉国COVID-19疫情的可持续预测方法。在整个研究过程中,我们预测了长达30天的情况,其中每天的实际预测都包括确诊人数、死亡人数和康复人数。此外,我们通过一项有争议的研究表明,长短期记忆(LSTM)在时间序列数据分析中需要实际输出趋势,该研究超过了随机森林(RF)回归和支持向量回归(SVR),这两种都是机器学习(ML)模型。本文考虑了孟加拉国当前的COVID-19疫情。这里,一个著名的递归神经网络(RNN)模型,即LSTM网络,预测了从2020年5月15日到2020年6月15日孟加拉国每日感染情况下的COVID-19病例。还进行了一项比较研究,该研究通过均方根误差(RMSE)传播率对LSTM、SVR、RF回归进行分析。在各方面,如今在孟加拉国COVID-19的严重性已经过高,因此基于这种情况,公共卫生部门和普通民众需要意识到这种情况,并且还能够了解自我封锁将持续多长时间。到目前为止,据我们所知,基于LSTM的时间序列分析预测传染病是一种行之有效的方法。

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