Progress Toward Achieving National Targets for Reducing Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality: A County-Level Perspective.

Background The American Heart Association and Healthy People 2020 established objectives to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke death rates by 20% by the year 2020, with 2007 as the baseline year. We examined county-level achievement of the targeted reduction in CHD and stroke death rates from 2007 to 2017. Methods and Results Applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to National Vital Statistics data, we estimated annual age-standardized county-level death rates and the corresponding percentage change during 2007 to 2017 for those aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years and by urban-rural classification. For those aged ≥35 years, 56.1% (95% credible interval [CI], 54.1%-57.7%) and 39.8% (95% CI, 36.9%-42.7%) of counties achieved a 20% reduction in CHD and stroke death rates, respectively. For both CHD and stroke, the proportions of counties achieving a 20% reduction were lower for those aged 35 to 64 years than for those aged ≥65 years (CHD: 32.2% [95% CI, 29.4%-35.6%] and 64.1% [95% CI, 62.3%-65.7%]), respectively; stroke: 17.9% [95% CI, 13.9%-22.2%] and 45.6% [95% CI, 42.8%-48.3%]). Counties achieving a 20% reduction in death rates were more commonly urban counties (except stroke death rates for those aged ≥65 years). Conclusions Our analysis found substantial, but uneven, achievement of the targeted 20% reduction in CHD and stroke death rates, defined by the American Heart Association and Healthy People. The large proportion of counties not achieving the targeted reduction suggests a renewed focus on CHD and stroke prevention and treatment, especially among younger adults living outside of urban centers. These county-level patterns provide a foundation for robust responses by clinicians, public health professionals, and communities.