Department of Basic Sciences, Air Force Engineering University, Xioan 710051, China.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Nov 24;18(1):154-165. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021008.
The new type of coronavirus pneumonia is caused by the new type of coronavirus which appeared at the end of 2019. Because of its strong contagiousness, rapid spread and great harm, it has already given countries around the world serious effects. So far there is no clear specific drug. Scientifically grasping the development law of epidemics is extremely important for preventing and controlling epidemics. Since the latent of this epidemic are also highly contagious, traditional infectious disease models cannot accurately describe the regularity of this epidemic transmission. Based on the traditional infectious disease model, an infectious disease model with a time delay is proposed. The time difference is used to characterize the cycle of viral infection and treatment time. Using the epidemic data released in real time, firstly, through the numerical simulation parameter inversion, the minimum error is obtained; then we simulate the development trend of the epidemic according to the dynamics system; finally, we compare and analyze the effectiveness of isolation measures. This article has simulated COVID-19 and analyzed the development of the epidemic in Beijing and Wuhan. By comparing the severity of the epidemic in the two regions, early detection and isolation are still the top priority of epidemic prevention and control.
新型冠状病毒肺炎是由 2019 年底出现的新型冠状病毒引起的。由于其传染性强、传播速度快、危害大，已对世界各国造成严重影响。目前尚无明确的特效药物。科学掌握疫情发展规律，对防控疫情具有重要意义。由于该传染病的潜伏期也具有很强的传染性，传统的传染病模型无法准确描述该传染病的传播规律。本文基于传统的传染病模型，提出了一个具有时滞的传染病模型。时间差用于描述病毒感染和治疗时间的周期。利用实时发布的传染病数据，首先通过数值模拟参数反演，得到最小误差；然后根据动力系统模拟传染病的发展趋势；最后，对比分析隔离措施的有效性。本文模拟了 COVID-19，并对北京和武汉的疫情发展进行了分析。通过比较两个地区疫情的严重程度，早期检测和隔离仍然是疫情防控的重中之重。
