La Vecchia C, Decarli A
Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Università di Milano, Italia.
Oncology. 1988;45(2):93-7. doi: 10.1159/000226540.
The decline in childhood cancer mortality in Italy from 1955 to 1980 has been evaluated through (1) comparison of age-specific and age-standardized (0-14 years) rates for the periods 1955-1960 and 1979-1980 and (2) computation of expected numbers of deaths by application of the age-specific rates for the period 1955-1960 to the population structure of subsequent periods. Certified mortality fell by 35% for leukaemias, 90% for Hodgkin's disease, 30% for non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, 40% for bone sarcomas, 30% for kidney (Wilms') tumours, 65% for retinoblastoma. No clear trend was reported for other neoplasms, including neuroblastoma. About 300 cancer deaths per year were avoided in the period 1979-1980 compared with the expected number based on the 1955-1960 rates (170 for leukaemias alone). Although clearly encouraging, these trends are substantially less favourable than those from several other developed countries. It is therefore likely that several dozen other deaths from childhood cancer could be avoided each year through earlier (or more accurate) application of effective therapies, particularly for neoplasms requiring radiotherapy or surgical treatment.
通过以下方式评估了1955年至1980年意大利儿童癌症死亡率的下降情况：（1）比较1955 - 1960年和1979 - 1980年按年龄划分的特定年龄和年龄标准化（0 - 14岁）死亡率；（2）将1955 - 1960年的特定年龄死亡率应用于后续时期的人口结构来计算预期死亡人数。白血病的认证死亡率下降了35%，霍奇金病下降了90%，非霍奇金淋巴瘤下降了30%，骨肉瘤下降了40%，肾（威尔姆斯）肿瘤下降了30%，视网膜母细胞瘤下降了65%。对于包括神经母细胞瘤在内的其他肿瘤，未报告明显趋势。与基于1955 - 1960年死亡率的预期数字相比，1979 - 1980年期间每年约避免了300例癌症死亡（仅白血病就有170例）。尽管这些趋势明显令人鼓舞，但与其他几个发达国家相比，仍明显不利。因此，通过更早（或更准确）地应用有效治疗方法，特别是对于需要放疗或手术治疗的肿瘤，每年可能还可以避免几十例儿童癌症死亡。
