Kumar Sameer, Xu Chong, Ghildayal Nidhi, Chandra Charu, Yang Muer
Department of Operations and Supply Chain Management, Opus College of Business, University of St. Thomas, Mail # SCH 435, Minneapolis, MN 55403 USA.
School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas, Mail Stop OSS100, 2115 Summit Ave., St. Paul, MN 55105 USA.
Ann Oper Res. 2022;319(1):823-851. doi: 10.1007/s10479-021-03955-y. Epub 2021 Jan 29.
Influenza and COVID-19 are infectious diseases with significant burdens. Information and awareness on preventative techniques can be spread through the use of social media, which has become an increasingly utilized tool in recent years. This study developed a dynamic transmission model to investigate the impact of social media, particularly tweets via the social networking platform, Twitter on the number of influenza and COVID-19 cases of infection and deaths. We modified the traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR-V) model with an additional social media component, in order to increase the accuracy of transmission dynamics and gain insight on whether social media is a beneficial behavioral intervention for these infectious diseases. The analysis found that social media has a positive effect in mitigating the spread of contagious disease in terms of peak time, peak magnitude, total infected, and total death; and the results also showed that social media's effect has a non-linear relationship with the reproduction number and it will be amplified when a vaccine is available. The findings indicate that social media is an integral part in the humanitarian logistics of pandemic and emergency preparedness, and contributes to the literature by informing best practices in the response to similar disasters.
流感和新冠肺炎是负担沉重的传染病。关于预防技术的信息和认识可以通过社交媒体传播,近年来社交媒体已成为越来越常用的工具。本研究建立了一个动态传播模型,以调查社交媒体,特别是通过社交网络平台推特发布的推文,对流感和新冠肺炎感染病例数及死亡人数的影响。我们在传统的易感-暴露-感染-康复(SEIR-V)模型中增加了一个社交媒体组件,以提高传播动力学的准确性,并深入了解社交媒体是否是针对这些传染病的有益行为干预措施。分析发现,社交媒体在峰值时间、峰值幅度、总感染人数和总死亡人数方面对减轻传染病传播具有积极作用;结果还表明,社交媒体的影响与繁殖数呈非线性关系,并且在有疫苗可用时其影响会放大。研究结果表明,社交媒体是大流行和应急准备的人道主义物流中不可或缺的一部分,并通过介绍应对类似灾难的最佳做法为相关文献做出了贡献。