International Development Department, University of Birmingham, 1143 Muirhead Tower, Birmingham B15 2TT, England.
Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, England.
Bull World Health Organ. 2021 Feb 1;99(2):102-111B. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.270033. Epub 2020 Nov 4.
OBJECTIVE: To examine countries' engagement with the health impacts of climate change in their formal statements to intergovernmental organizations, and the factors driving engagement. METHODS: We obtained the texts of countries' annual statements in United Nations (UN) general debates from 2000 to 2019 and their nationally determined contributions at the Paris Agreement in 2016. To measure countries' engagement, we used a keyword-in-context text search with relevant search terms to count the total number of references to the relationship of health to climate change. We used a machine learning model (random forest predictions) to identify the most important country-level predictors of engagement. The predictors included political and economic factors, health outcomes, climate change-related variables and membership of political negotiating groups in the UN. FINDINGS: For both UN general debate statements and nationally determined contributions, low- and middle-income countries discussed the health impacts of climate change much more than did high-income countries. The most important predictors of engagement were health outcomes (infant mortality, maternal deaths, life expectancy), countries' income levels (gross domestic product per capita), and fossil fuel consumption. Membership of political negotiating groups (such as the Group of 77 and Small Island Developing States) was a less important predictor. CONCLUSION: Our analysis indicated a higher engagement in countries that carry the heaviest climate-related health burdens, but lack necessary resources to address the impacts of climate change. These countries are shouldering responsibility for reminding the global community of the implications of climate change for people's health.
目的:研究各国在向政府间组织提交的正式声明中对气候变化对健康的影响的参与情况,以及推动参与的因素。
方法:我们获取了各国在 2000 年至 2019 年联合国(UN)大会一般性辩论中的年度声明文本以及在 2016 年《巴黎协定》中的国家自主贡献文本。为了衡量各国的参与程度,我们使用了一个关键词上下文文本搜索,使用相关的搜索词来计算与健康与气候变化的关系有关的引用总数。我们使用机器学习模型(随机森林预测)来确定影响参与度的最重要的国家层面预测因素。这些预测因素包括政治和经济因素、健康结果、与气候变化相关的变量以及在联合国政治谈判集团中的成员国身份。
结果:无论是在联合国大会一般性辩论声明还是在国家自主贡献中,中低收入国家对气候变化对健康的影响的讨论都远远超过高收入国家。参与度的最重要预测因素是健康结果(婴儿死亡率、产妇死亡率、预期寿命)、各国的收入水平(人均国内生产总值)和化石燃料消耗。政治谈判集团(如 77 国集团和小岛屿发展中国家)的成员国身份是一个不太重要的预测因素。
结论:我们的分析表明,在那些承担着与气候相关的最大健康负担但缺乏必要资源来应对气候变化影响的国家中,参与度更高。这些国家承担着提醒全球社会气候变化对人民健康的影响的责任。
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