School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK.
Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Feb;5(2):e93-e101. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30302-8.
BACKGROUND: Instituted under the Paris Agreement, nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outline countries' plans for mitigating and adapting to climate change. They are the primary policy instrument for protecting people's health in the face of rising global temperatures. However, evidence on engagement with health in the NDCs is scarce. In this study, we aimed to examine how public health is incorporated in the NDCs, and how different patterns of engagement might be related to broader inequalities and tensions in global climate politics. METHODS: We analysed the NDCs in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change registry submitted by 185 countries. Using content analysis and natural language processing (NLP) methods, we developed measures of health engagement. Multivariate regression analyses examined whether country-level factors (eg, population size, gross domestic product [GDP], and climate-related exposures) were associated with greater health engagement. Using NLP methods, we compared health engagement with other climate-related challenges (ie, economy, energy, and agriculture) and examined broader differences in the keyword terms used in countries with high and low health engagement in their NDCs. FINDINGS: Countries that did not mention health in their NDCs were clustered in high-income countries, whereas greater health engagement was concentrated in low-income and middle-income countries. Having a low GDP per capita and being a small island developing state were associated with higher levels of health engagement. In addition, higher levels of population exposure to temperature change and ambient air pollution were associated with more health coverage included in a country's NDC. Variation in health engagement was greater than for other climate-related issues and reflected wider differences in countries' approaches to the NDCs. INTERPRETATION: A focus on health in the NDCs follows broader patterns of global inequalities. Poorer and climate-vulnerable countries that contribute least to climate change are more likely to engage with health in their NDCs, while richer countries focus on non-health sectors in their NDCs, such as energy and the economy. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust and supported by The Economic and Social Research Council.
背景:国家自主贡献是根据《巴黎协定》制定的,概述了各国应对气候变化的减缓和适应计划。它们是面对全球气温上升保护人民健康的主要政策手段。然而,关于国家自主贡献中涉及健康问题的证据很少。在这项研究中,我们旨在研究公共卫生是如何纳入国家自主贡献的,以及不同的参与模式可能与全球气候政治中的更广泛的不平等和紧张关系有何关系。
方法:我们分析了在联合国气候变化框架公约登记册中提交的 185 个国家的国家自主贡献。我们使用内容分析和自然语言处理(NLP)方法,制定了健康参与度的衡量标准。多元回归分析检验了国家层面的因素(如人口规模、国内生产总值[GDP]和与气候相关的暴露)是否与更高的健康参与度相关。我们使用 NLP 方法比较了健康参与度与其他与气候相关的挑战(即经济、能源和农业),并研究了在国家自主贡献中健康参与度高和低的国家在关键词使用方面的更广泛差异。
结果:没有在国家自主贡献中提及健康问题的国家集中在高收入国家,而更高的健康参与度集中在低收入和中等收入国家。人均 GDP 低和小岛发展中国家与更高水平的健康参与度相关。此外,人口对温度变化和环境空气污染的暴露水平较高与国家自主贡献中包含更多健康覆盖范围相关。健康参与度的变化大于其他与气候相关的问题,反映了各国对国家自主贡献的方法的更广泛差异。
解释:国家自主贡献中对健康的关注遵循着更广泛的全球不平等模式。对气候变化贡献最小、较贫穷和气候脆弱的国家更有可能在其国家自主贡献中涉及健康问题,而较富裕的国家则在其国家自主贡献中侧重于非健康部门,如能源和经济。
资金:这项工作部分得到了惠康信托基金会的一项无限制赠款的资助,并得到了经济和社会研究委员会的支持。
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