School of Architecture and Art, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China.
Centre for Design Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 23;20(3):2068. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032068.
The Omicron variant of COVID-19, which emerged at the end of 2021, has caused a new wave of infections around the world and is causing a new wave of the crisis due to the extreme variability of the pathogen. In response to public health emergencies such as SARS and COVID-19, the first task is to identify the vulnerabilities of regional health systems and perform a comprehensive assessment of the region's resilience. In this paper, we take the carrying capacity of medical resources as the focus; evaluate the medical, human, and financial resources of various regions; and construct an epidemic safety index based on the actual situation or future trend of the epidemic outbreak to evaluate and predict the risk level of each region in response to the epidemic. The study firstly evaluates the epidemic safety index for each province and city in China and 150 countries around the world, using the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and the Omicron variant virus in 2022 as the background, respectively, and justifies the index through the actual performance in terms of epidemic prevention and control, based on which the epidemic safety index for 150 countries in the next year is predicted. The conclusions show that Europe, the Americas, and parts of Asia will face a significant risk of epidemic shocks in the coming period and that countries need to formulate policies in response to the actual situation of the epidemic.
新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株于 2021 年末出现，导致了全球范围内的新一轮感染，并因其病原体的极端变异性引发了新的危机。应对 SARS 和新冠疫情等公共卫生紧急情况，首要任务是识别区域卫生系统的脆弱性，并对该区域的弹性进行全面评估。在本文中，我们以医疗资源承载能力为重点；评估各地区的医疗、人力和财力资源；并根据疫情爆发的实际情况或未来趋势构建疫情安全指数，以评估和预测各地区对疫情的应对风险水平。该研究首先评估了中国各省、市和全球 150 个国家的疫情安全指数，分别以 2020 年新冠疫情第一轮和 2022 年奥密克戎变异病毒为背景，并基于疫情防控的实际表现对该指数进行了验证，在此基础上对 150 个国家次年的疫情安全指数进行了预测。研究结果表明，欧洲、美洲和亚洲部分地区在未来一段时间内将面临疫情冲击的重大风险，各国需要根据疫情实际情况制定政策。
