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年龄差异与人口过度覆盖:移民中的低死亡率仅仅是数据假象吗?

Age variations and population over-coverage: Is low mortality among migrants merely a data artefact?

机构信息

Stockholm University.

London School of Economics.

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 2022 Mar;76(1):81-98. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1877331. Epub 2021 Feb 10.

Abstract

The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage-a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages-and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden's population registers (2010-15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms.

摘要

移民的死亡优势已经被广泛观察到,但它的真实性存在争议。特别是,人们仍然担心这种优势是数据的人为产物,是由外国出生人口流动记录问题产生的。在这里,我们借鉴了最近的两个发展的交叉点:第一个是优势的年龄变化很大——在移民高峰期呈深度 U 型优势——第二个是在相同的年龄,人口过度覆盖的水平很高,这是数据人为因素的主要来源。我们使用瑞典人口登记册(2010-15 年)的事件历史分析来检验这种过度覆盖是否可以解释移民死亡率优势的年龄变化。我们记录了瑞典的 U 型优势,并且至关重要的是,在调整了估计的过度覆盖后,我们仍然证明了存在很大的死亡率差异。我们的研究结果通过证明移民的死亡优势是真实的,并排除了其主要机制之一,为正在进行的辩论做出了贡献。

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