Rahman Mohammad Mafizur, Alam Khosrul
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, QLD 4350, Australia.
Department of Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, Bangladesh.
Omega (Westport). 2023 Feb;86(3):889-912. doi: 10.1177/0030222821993616. Epub 2021 Feb 10.
This study aims to identify the role of socio-economic and female indicators on child mortality in Bangladesh from the data of 1975 - 2019. A number of econometric techniques of time series analysis like Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Autoregressive Distributive Lag bounds and pair-wise Granger causality tests have been applied to ascertain the desired outcomes. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has confirmed that neither series is integrated at level two and the Autoregressive Distributive Lag bounds testing approach has shown the cointegration and short-run and long-run relationship between the variables. Total fertility rate and urbanization have a positive effect, and female education, female life expectancy at birth, and economic growth rate have a negative effect on the child mortality rate. The pair-wise Granger causality test has shown the unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationship among the studied variables. All the outcomes are theoretically consistent and the policy recommendations are made based on findings.
本研究旨在根据1975 - 2019年的数据，确定社会经济指标和女性指标在孟加拉国儿童死亡率方面所起的作用。运用了多种时间序列分析的计量经济学技术，如增强迪基 - 富勒检验、自回归分布滞后边界检验和成对格兰杰因果关系检验，以确定预期结果。增强迪基 - 富勒检验证实，两个序列在二阶都不具有积分性，自回归分布滞后边界检验方法表明变量之间存在协整关系以及短期和长期关系。总生育率和城市化对儿童死亡率有正向影响，而女性教育、女性出生时预期寿命和经济增长率对儿童死亡率有负向影响。成对格兰杰因果关系检验显示了所研究变量之间的单向和双向因果关系。所有结果在理论上都是一致的，并根据研究结果提出了政策建议。
