Department of Dermatology, Valme University Hospital, Sevilla, Spain.
Department of Dermatology, Virgen del Rocio University Hospital, Sevilla, Spain.
Int J Dermatol. 2021 Jul;60(7):844-850. doi: 10.1111/ijd.15438. Epub 2021 Feb 11.
Melanoma mortality rates are stabilizing and in certain regions and age groups are trending down. Although there are some studies that predict melanoma mortality in other countries, there are currently no studies that predict mortality in Spain in the coming years. The main aim of this study is to calculate melanoma mortality projections in Spain for the period 2019-2043.
This is a population-based ecological study that utilized information from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Analysis included deaths as a result of cutaneous melanoma in Spain in the period 1979-2018, and data was analyzed according to gender and age group. Projections were made until 2043 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software).
Our estimates predict that in the period 2019-2043, there will be 30,477.9 deaths from melanoma in Spain, with the age group of >85 years being the group with the highest number of deaths. The expected average annual death rate for melanoma in both genders for the period 2019-2043 is 1,269.9 deaths / year. The predicted age-standardized mortality rates varied between 4.62/100.000 inhabitants in the 2019-2023 period and 3.94/100.000 inhabitants in the 2039-2043 period.
Overall mortality rate and age-standardized melanoma death rates in older people of both genders will increase in the coming years in Spain, while rates in younger people will stabilize or decrease progressively. In the coming years, prevention efforts should focus on the young, but the emphasis should also be on educating the elderly in early detection of melanoma.
黑色素瘤死亡率趋于稳定，在某些地区和年龄组中呈下降趋势。虽然有一些研究预测了其他国家的黑色素瘤死亡率，但目前尚无研究预测未来几年西班牙的死亡率。本研究的主要目的是计算西班牙 2019-2043 年期间黑色素瘤死亡率的预测值。
这是一项基于人群的生态研究，利用了西班牙国家统计局的数据。分析包括 1979-2018 年期间西班牙因皮肤黑色素瘤导致的死亡，根据性别和年龄组进行了数据分析。使用 Nordpred（R 软件内）预测了 2019-2043 年期间每五年的死亡率。
我们的预测表明，在 2019-2043 年期间，西班牙将有 30477.9 人死于黑色素瘤，其中 85 岁以上的年龄组死亡人数最多。预测 2019-2043 年期间两性黑色素瘤的预期平均年死亡率为 1269.9 人/年。预测的年龄标准化死亡率在 2019-2023 年期间为每 10 万人 4.62 人，在 2039-2043 年期间为每 10 万人 3.94 人。
未来几年，西班牙两性老年人的总体死亡率和年龄标准化黑色素瘤死亡率将增加，而年轻人的死亡率将稳定或逐渐下降。未来几年，预防工作应重点关注年轻人，但也应重视对老年人进行黑色素瘤早期检测的教育。
