Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China.
Nat Commun. 2021 Feb 15;12(1):1039. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1.
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
最近的研究报告了气候变化对健康的多种影响。然而，个体和城市对气候变化的脆弱性仍有待评估。我们使用 28 个全球气候模型（GCM）在两种代表性浓度途径（RCP）下，预测了未来高温对中国 161 个区/县的超额归因于未来高温的死因、年龄、地区和教育特定死亡率。为了评估人口老龄化对未来热相关死亡预测的影响，我们还根据五个共享社会经济途径（SSP）预测了特定年龄的影响估计。在 RCP8.5 下，预计未来高温引起的超额死亡率将从 2010 年代的 1.9%（95%置信区间：0.2-3.3%）增加到 2030 年代的 2.4%（0.4-4.1%）和 2090 年代的 5.5%（0.5-9.9%），相应的相对变化分别为 0.5%（0.0-1.2%）和 3.6%（-0.5-7.5%）。在南部、东部、中部和北部地区，预计的斜率更为陡峭。患有心肺疾病、女性、老年人和教育程度较低的人可能会受到更大的影响。在不同的 SSP 下，人口老龄化使未来热相关的超额死亡增加了 2.3 到 5.8 倍，特别是东北地区。我们的研究结果可以帮助指导公共卫生应对措施，以减轻气候变化的风险。
