Bano Sadia, Alam Mehtab, Khan Anwar, Liu Lu
School of Economics, South-Western University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.
Department of Business Management, Karakorum International University, Gilgit, Pakistan.
Environ Dev Sustain. 2021;23(10):14854-14877. doi: 10.1007/s10668-021-01275-6. Epub 2021 Feb 11.
In the current study, we investigate the dynamic association of tourism, renewable energy, income, foreign direct investment (FDI), and carbon dioxide (COe) for Pakistan over 1990-2017. We established four plausible hypotheses and verified by employing the autoregressive distributed lags model and Granger causality based on vector error correction model (VECM). Considering the cointegration relationship between the variables, the outcomes of autoregressive distributed lags suggested that tourism increases economic growth, and economic growth induces tourism in the long-run, thus confirming tourism-led development, and growth-led tourism hypothesis; similarly, the tourism generates COe emissions, which supported the tourism-led emission hypothesis. The role of renewable energy consumption found to be a significant moderator, thus helping to enrich tourism, accelerating economic growth, and combating COe in the country. VECM causal results indicated the significant bidirectional causal linkages between tourism and economic growth-another causality found between tourism and COe. There is one-way causality from FDI and renewable energy towards income simultaneously. Overall, the designers of policies will find this study useful for policymaking at government levels for smooth economic growth, investment, and sustainable tourism sector.
在本研究中，我们考察了1990 - 2017年期间巴基斯坦旅游业、可再生能源、收入、外国直接投资（FDI）和二氧化碳（CO₂）之间的动态关联。我们提出了四个合理的假设，并通过运用自回归分布滞后模型以及基于向量误差修正模型（VECM）的格兰杰因果关系进行了验证。考虑到变量之间的协整关系，自回归分布滞后模型的结果表明，从长期来看，旅游业促进经济增长，经济增长又带动旅游业发展，从而证实了旅游带动发展以及增长带动旅游的假设；同样，旅游业会产生CO₂排放，这支持了旅游带动排放的假设。研究发现可再生能源消费的作用是一个重要的调节因素，有助于丰富该国的旅游业、加速经济增长并应对CO₂排放。VECM因果关系结果表明，旅游业与经济增长之间存在显著的双向因果联系，旅游业与CO₂之间也存在另一种因果关系。FDI和可再生能源对收入同时存在单向因果关系。总体而言，政策制定者会发现本研究对于政府层面制定政策以实现经济平稳增长、投资和可持续旅游业发展很有帮助。
