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痕量环境数据的屏蔽:限制偏差的统计分析考虑。

Censoring Trace-Level Environmental Data: Statistical Analysis Considerations to Limit Bias.

机构信息

Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., MD-B105-01, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States.

Neptune and Company, Inc., 1435 Garrison Street, Suite 201, Lakewood, Colorado 80215, United States.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2021 Mar 16;55(6):3786-3795. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02256. Epub 2021 Feb 24.

Abstract

Trace-level environmental data typically include values near or below detection and quantitation thresholds where health effects may result from low-concentration exposures to one chemical over time or to multiple chemicals. In a cook stove case study, bias in dibenzo[a,h]anthracene concentration means and standard deviations (SDs) was assessed following censoring at thresholds for selected analysis approaches: substituting threshold/2, maximum likelihood estimation, robust regression on order statistics, Kaplan-Meier, and omitting censored observations. Means and SDs for gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-determined concentrations were calculated after censoring at detection and calibration thresholds, 17% and 55% of the data, respectively. Threshold/2 substitution was the least biased. Measurement values were subsequently simulated from two log-normal distributions at two sample sizes. Means and SDs were calculated for 30%, 50%, and 80% censoring levels and compared to known distribution counterparts. Simulation results illustrated (1) threshold/2 substitution to be inferior to modern after-censoring statistical approaches and (2) all after-censoring approaches to be inferior to including all measurement data in analysis. Additionally, differences in stove-specific group means were tested for uncensored samples and after censoring. Group differences of means tests varied depending on censoring and distributional decisions. Investigators should guard against censoring-related bias from (explicit or implicit) distributional and analysis approach decisions.

摘要

痕量环境数据通常包括接近或低于检测和定量阈值的值,在这种情况下,由于长时间或多种化学物质的低浓度暴露,可能会对健康产生影响。在一个炉灶案例研究中,在对选定分析方法的阈值进行删节后,评估了二苯并[a,h]蒽浓度的均值和标准差(SD)的偏差:阈值/2 替换、选择阈值/2 替换、最大似然估计、有序统计量的稳健回归、Kaplan-Meier 以及删去删失观测值。在对检测和校准阈值分别为数据的 17%和 55%进行删节后,计算了气相色谱-质谱法测定浓度的均值和 SD。阈值/2 替换的偏差最小。随后从两个对数正态分布中模拟了两个样本量的测量值。计算了 30%、50%和 80%的删失水平的均值和 SD,并与已知分布的对应值进行了比较。模拟结果表明:(1)阈值/2 替换不如现代删后统计方法;(2)所有删后方法都不如将所有测量数据纳入分析。此外,还对未删失样本和删失后未删失样本的特定炉灶组均值进行了差异检验。在不同的分布和分析方法下,组间均值检验的差异是不同的。调查人员应该警惕由于(显式或隐式)分布和分析方法决策而导致的与删失相关的偏差。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e367/8224532/a5a0d3dc1857/nihms-1686875-f0001.jpg

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