福岛核事故九个月后日本活产数的减少：一项观察性研究。

Reduction in live births in Japan nine months after the Fukushima nuclear accident: An observational study.

作者信息

Körblein Alfred

机构信息

Untere Söldnersgasse 8, Nürnberg, Germany.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Feb 25;16(2):e0242938. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242938. eCollection 2021.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0242938

PMID:33630835

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7906319/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

After the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986, a drop in birth-rate was found in several European countries in the first quarter of 1987. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether a similar drop in live births occurred in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

DATA AND METHODS

A study region was defined consisting of Fukushima prefecture plus 10 nearby prefectures. The observed monthly numbers of live births (LB) in October 2011 through December 2012 were compared with the predicted numbers determined from the trend of live births in the remaining months from January 2006 through December 2018. The study region was divided into Fukushima plus three adjacent prefectures (Area A, assumed effective mean dose in the first year 1 mSv) and seven surrounding prefectures (Area B, 0.5 mSv). The rest of Japan (Area C) served as the comparison (control) region (0.1 mSv). A combined regression of live births (LB) in areas A, B, C was conducted with individual trend parameters but common parameters for monthly variations.

RESULTS

In the study region as a whole (areas A and B combined) a highly significant 9.1% (95% CI: -12.2%, -6.0%) drop in LB was found in December 2011. Reduced numbers of live births were also observed in October-November 2011 (-3.3%, p = 0.006), i.e. in births exposed early in pregnancy. In the second quarter of 2012, i.e. in live births conceived more than 3 months after the Fukushima accident, the decrease was greater (-4.3%, p < 0.001) than in the first quarter (-1.6%, p = 0.11). i.e. in those conceived within the first three months after the accident while no significant decrease was detected in the third (-0.7%, p = 0.44) and fourth (-0.5%, p = 0.62) quarters. The effect in Dec 2011 was greater in Area A with -14.0 (-17.6, -10.3) % than in Area B with -7.8 (-11.1, -4.5) % and non-significant in Area C with -1.3 (-4.2, +1.6) %, p = 0.38. The combined regression of the data in areas A, B, and C found a highly significant association of the effect in December 2011 with radiation dose. Conclusion: It is suggested that the observed drop in LB in December 2011 may reflect early deaths of the conceptus from high radiation exposure following the triple meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on March 12-15, 2011.

摘要

背景

1986年4月26日切尔诺贝利事故后，1987年第一季度在几个欧洲国家发现出生率下降。本研究的目的是调查福岛核事故后日本的活产数是否出现类似下降。

数据与方法

定义了一个研究区域，包括福岛县及附近10个县。将2011年10月至2012年12月观察到的每月活产数（LB）与根据2006年1月至2018年12月其余月份活产趋势确定的预测数进行比较。研究区域分为福岛县加三个相邻县（A区，第一年假定有效平均剂量为1毫希沃特）和七个周边县（B区，0.5毫希沃特）。日本其他地区（C区）作为对照区域（0.1毫希沃特）。对A、B、C区的活产数（LB）进行联合回归分析，个体趋势参数不同，但月度变化参数相同。

结果

在整个研究区域（A区和B区合并），2011年12月发现活产数显著下降9.1%（95%可信区间：-12.2%，-6.0%）。2011年10 - 11月也观察到活产数减少（-3.3%，p = 0.006），即在孕期早期受辐射的出生儿中。2012年第二季度，即福岛事故发生3个月后受孕的活产儿，减少幅度更大（-4.3%，p < 0.001），大于第一季度（-1.6%，p = 0.11），即事故发生后前三个月受孕的活产儿，而第三季度（-0.7%，p = 0.44）和第四季度（-0.5%，p = 0.62）未发现显著下降。2011年12月A区的影响更大，为-14.0（-17.6，-10.3）%，高于B区的-7.8（-11.1，-4.5）%，C区不显著，为-1.3（-4.2，+1.6）%，p = 0.38。对A、B、C区数据的联合回归分析发现，2011年12月的影响与辐射剂量高度相关。结论：提示2011年12月观察到的活产数下降可能反映了2011年3月12 - 15日福岛第一核电站三重熔毁后，高辐射暴露导致的胚胎早期死亡。