National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia (INAT), University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia.
National Agricultural Research Institute of Tunisia (INRAT). Field Crops Laboratory, University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(34):46797-46808. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13089-0. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the Tunisian economy, particularly in rural areas. Resilience and adaptation to climate change are the main challenges facing this sector. This paper aims to analyze climate change resilience of agricultural production systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas and to propose options for policy interventions. A path Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used to predict the resilience of these systems using the partial least squares method (PLS). Results show that farming systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas remain threatened against negative impact of climate change since 80% of farms in the sample have shown low resilience levels. The most important determinants of agricultural systems' resilience are farmers' income and access to food, adaptive capacity, and access to productive and non-productive assets. Results indicate also that integrated systems, income diversification, along with cooperation and collective action are the key options to enhance resilience of rural households and farming systems. It is recommended to raise awareness of stakeholders and decision-makers about climate change challenges and to develop integrated approaches to better engaging with local stakeholders and institutions in adaptation programs and strategies development.
农业部门在突尼斯经济中扮演着战略性的角色，特别是在农村地区。适应和抵御气候变化是该部门面临的主要挑战。本文旨在分析突尼斯半干旱地区农业生产系统的气候适应能力，并提出政策干预的选择方案。使用偏最小二乘（PLS）方法的路径结构方程模型（SEM）来预测这些系统的适应能力。结果表明，由于样本中 80%的农场表现出较低的适应水平，突尼斯半干旱地区的农业系统仍然受到气候变化负面影响的威胁。农业系统适应能力的最重要决定因素是农民的收入和粮食获取、适应能力以及获得生产性和非生产性资产的机会。结果还表明，综合系统、收入多样化以及合作和集体行动是增强农村家庭和农业系统适应能力的关键选择。建议提高利益攸关方和决策者对气候变化挑战的认识，并制定综合方法，以便更好地与当地利益攸关方和机构合作，参与适应计划和战略的制定。
