Kumar Uttam, Morel Julien, Bergkvist Göran, Palosuo Taru, Gustavsson Anne-Maj, Peake Allan, Brown Hamish, Ahmed Mukhtar, Parsons David
Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Science, 90183 Umeå, Sweden.
Department of Crop Production and Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Science, 705007 Uppsala, Sweden.
Plants (Basel). 2021 Feb 26;10(3):443. doi: 10.3390/plants10030443.
Phenology algorithms in crop growth models have inevitable systematic errors and uncertainties. In this study, the phenology simulation algorithms in APSIM classical (APSIM 7.9) and APSIM next generation (APSIM-NG) were compared for spring barley models at high latitudes. Phenological data of twelve spring barley varieties were used for the 2014-2018 cropping seasons from northern Sweden and Finland. A factorial-based calibration approach provided within APSIM-NG was performed to calibrate both models. The models have different mechanisms to simulate days to anthesis. The calibration was performed separately for days to anthesis and physiological maturity, and evaluations for the calibrations were done with independent datasets. The calibration performance for both growth stages of APSIM-NG was better compared to APSIM 7.9. However, in the evaluation, APSIM-NG showed an inclination to overestimate days to physiological maturity. The differences between the models are possibly due to slower thermal time accumulation mechanism, with higher cardinal temperatures in APSIM-NG. For a robust phenology prediction at high latitudes with APSIM-NG, more research on the conception of thermal time computation and implementation is suggested.
作物生长模型中的物候算法存在不可避免的系统误差和不确定性。在本研究中，对高纬度地区春大麦模型在APSIM经典版（APSIM 7.9）和APSIM下一代版（APSIM-NG）中的物候模拟算法进行了比较。利用瑞典北部和芬兰2014 - 2018种植季的12个春大麦品种的物候数据。采用APSIM-NG中基于因子的校准方法对两个模型进行校准。这些模型在模拟抽穗天数方面具有不同的机制。分别对抽穗天数和生理成熟天数进行校准，并使用独立数据集对校准结果进行评估。与APSIM 7.9相比，APSIM-NG两个生长阶段的校准性能更好。然而，在评估中，APSIM-NG表现出高估生理成熟天数的倾向。模型之间的差异可能是由于热时间累积机制较慢，APSIM-NG中的基点温度较高。为了使用APSIM-NG在高纬度地区进行可靠的物候预测，建议对热时间计算和实施的概念进行更多研究。
