Division of Health Systems and Public Health, Department of Global Health, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Tygerberg Hospital, Francie Van Zijl Dr, Cape Town, 7505, South Africa.
Research and Policy, The National Student Financial Aid Scheme, Cape Town, South Africa.
Hum Resour Health. 2021 Mar 2;19(1):27. doi: 10.1186/s12960-021-00567-2.
Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios.
A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1.
While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution.
Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers.
医学领域的女性从业者日益增多，这一现象已得到广泛认可。然而，这并不一定意味着在医学领域，女性在社会人口统计学指标、地区、部门和执业领域的代表性与男性平等。因此，本文旨在量化女性医生的供应缺口与需求之间的差距，以实现不同的性别平等目标。
本研究利用 2002 年至 2019 年南非卫生专业人员委员会（HPCSA）数据库中注册的医生（执业医生和专科医生）数据作为供应指标进行回顾性分析。采用描述性统计方法对数据进行总结，并采用推断统计（置信水平为 0.05）分析人口统计学变量下男性和女性医生人数之间的关系。我们根据维持当前男女医生比例和实现 1:1 公平比例的假设，预测了南非男女医生在 2030 年前的未来差距。
虽然 2000 年至 2019 年期间，每 10000 人口中女性医生的比例从 1.2 增加到 3.2，但仍远低于每 10000 人口中男性医生的比例（从 2000 年的 3.5 增加到 2019 年的 4.7）。2019 年男性仍主导着医疗行业，占 HPCSA 注册医生的 59.4%（27579 人），女性占 40.6%（18841 人），男女比例为 1:0.7。黑人女性医生在医疗队伍中的比例持续增长，从 2000 年的 4.4%增长到 2019 年的 12.5%。要实现男女医生比例达到 1:1，到 2030 年将缺少 2242 名女医生。独立样本 t 检验显示，男性和女性医生的数量存在显著差异。Kruskal-Wallis 检验表明，按人口群体和地理分布，男性和女性医生的数量存在持续显著差异。
基于调查结果，我们建议人力资源规划纳入预测方法，以实现性别平等目标，为卫生工作者的生产规划提供信息。
