Identification, Monitoring, and Prediction of Disease Severity in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia Based on Chest Computed Tomography Scans: A Retrospective Study.

Background and Aims Non-contrast chest computed tomography (CT) scans can accurately evaluate the type and extent of lung lesions. The aim of this study was to investigate the chest CT features associated with critical and non-critical patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods A total of 1078 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who underwent chest CT scans, including 169 critical cases and 909 non-critical cases, were enrolled in this retrospective study. The scans of all participants were reviewed and compared in two groups of study. In addition, the risk factors associated with disease in critical and non-critical patients were analyzed. Results Chest CT scans showed bilateral and multifocal involvement in most (86.4%) of the participants, with 97.6 and 84.3% reported in critical and non-critical patients, respectively. The incidences of pure consolidation (p = 0.019), mixed ground-glass opacities (GGOs) and consolidation (p < 0.001), pleural effusion (p < 0.001), and intralesional traction bronchiectasis (p = 0.007) were significantly higher in critical compared to non-critical patients. However, non-critical patients showed higher incidence of pure GGOs than the critical patients (p < 0.001). Finally, the total opacity scores of the critical patients were significantly higher than those of non-critical patients (13.71 ± 6.26 versus 4.86 ± 3.52, p < 0.001), with an area under the curve of 0.91 (0.88-0.94) for COVID-19 detection. Conclusions Our results revealed that the chest CT examination was an effective means of detecting pulmonary parenchymal abnormalities in the natural course of COVID-19. It can distinguish the critical patients from the non-critical patients (AUC = 0.91), which is helpful for the judgment of clinical condition and has important clinical value for the diagnosis and follow-up of COVID-19 pneumonia.