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颗粒物对人类生活的不良影响评估。

Evaluation of adverse effects of particulate matter on human life.

作者信息

Hassan Ather, Ilyas Syed Zafar, Agathopoulos Simeon, Hussain Syed Mujtaba, Jalil Abdul, Ahmed Sarfraz, Baqir Yadullah

机构信息

Department of Physics, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of Ioannina, GR-451 10 Ioannina, Greece.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2021 Feb 17;7(2):e05968. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e05968. eCollection 2021 Feb.

Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) has a severe impact on human health. The concentration of PM, related to air-quality changes, may be associated with perceptible effects on people's health. In this study, computer intelligence was used to assess the negative effects of PM. The input data, used for the evaluation, were grid definitions (shape-file), PM, air-quality data, incidence/prevalence rates, a population dataset, and the (Krewski) health-impact function. This paper presents a local (Pakistan) health-impact assessment of PM in order to estimate the long-term effects on mortality. A rollback-to-a-standard scenario was based on the PM concentration of 15 μg m. Health benefits for a population of about 73 million people were calculated. The results showed that the estimated avoidable mortality, linked to ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, was 2,773 for every 100,000 people, which accounts for 2,024,290 preventable deaths of the total population. The total cost, related to the above mortality, was estimated to be US $ 1,000 million. Therefore, a policy for a PM-standard up to 15 μg m is suggested.

摘要

颗粒物(PM)对人类健康有严重影响。与空气质量变化相关的PM浓度可能会对人们的健康产生明显影响。在本研究中,利用计算机智能评估PM的负面影响。用于评估的输入数据包括网格定义(shape文件)、PM、空气质量数据、发病率/患病率、人口数据集以及(克鲁斯基)健康影响函数。本文对巴基斯坦当地的PM健康影响进行评估,以估计其对死亡率的长期影响。回溯到标准情景是基于15微克/立方米的PM浓度。计算了约7300万人的健康效益。结果表明,与缺血性心脏病和肺癌相关的估计可避免死亡率为每10万人中有2773人,占总人口可预防死亡人数的2024290人。与上述死亡率相关的总成本估计为10亿美元。因此,建议制定PM标准达到15微克/立方米的政策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d160/7903305/0429e10feeed/gr1.jpg

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