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估算当地空气质量变化对健康和经济的影响。

Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Changes in Local Air Quality.

机构信息

Martha L. Carvour and Robert W. Haley are with the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Amy E. Hughes is with the Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas. Neal Fann is with the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.

出版信息

Am J Public Health. 2018 Apr;108(S2):S151-S157. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304252.

DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2017.304252
PMID:29698094
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5922206/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration-response and health-economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences.

METHODS

We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level.

RESULTS

Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data.

CONCLUSIONS

BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities.

摘要

目的

演示环境效益制图与分析规划-社区版(BenMAP-CE)效益绘图软件,该软件将当地空气质量数据与之前公布的浓度反应和健康经济估值函数相结合,以估计空气污染水平变化的健康影响及其经济后果。

方法

我们以德克萨斯州达拉斯-沃斯堡地区 10 个县的未达标地区臭氧变化为例进行了当地健康影响评估,根据 2 种情景预测了 3 年(2008 年、2011 年和 2013 年)的短期死亡率影响:所有区域监测器的日 8 小时最大臭氧水平逐步减少 10 个单位,仅在高于该水平的监测器上将臭氧水平回退至 65 个单位的标准环境水平。

结果

采用增量回退方法估算的臭氧空气污染导致的可预防过早死亡人数,各年变化不大,而采用回退至标准方法估算的结果则因年而异,且对有序性的选择和使用预加载或导入的数据敏感。

结论

BenMAP-CE 使地方和地区公共卫生分析师能够及时生成其社区中潜在政策选择的健康影响和经济后果的基于证据的估计。

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