Non-Invasive Molecular Survey of Sarcoptic Mange in Wildlife: Diagnostic Performance in Wolf Faecal Samples Evaluated by Multi-Event Capture-Recapture Models.

Sarcoptic mange is globally enzootic, and non-invasive methods with high diagnostic specificity for its surveillance in wildlife are lacking. We describe the molecular detection of in non-invasively collected faecal samples, targeting the 16S rDNA gene. We applied this method to 843 Iberian wolf faecal samples collected in north-western Portugal (2006-2018). We further integrated this with serological data (61 samples from wolf and 20 from red fox , 1997-2019) in multi-event capture-recapture models. The mean predicted prevalence by the molecular analysis of wolf faecal samples from 2006-2018 was 7.2% (CI 5.0-9.4%; range: 2.6-11.7%), highest in 2009. The mean predicted seroprevalence in wolves was 24.5% (CI 18.5-30.6%; range: 13.0-55.0%), peaking in 2006-2009. Multi-event capture-recapture models estimated 100% diagnostic specificity and moderate diagnostic sensitivity (30.0%, CI 14.0-53.0%) for the molecular method. Mange-infected individually identified wolves showed a tendency for higher mortality versus uninfected wolves (ΔMortality 0.150, CI -0.165-0.458). Long-term serology data highlights the endemicity of sarcoptic mange in wild canids but uncovers multi-year epidemics. This study developed and evaluated a novel method for surveying sarcoptic mange in wildlife populations by the molecular detection of in faecal samples, which stands out for its high specificity and non-invasive character.