Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Feb 14;18(4):1839. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18041839.
A total of 475,214 COVID-19 cases, including 13,659 deaths, had been recorded in Canada as of 15 December 2020. The daily reports of confirmed cases and deaths in Canada prior to 15 December 2020 were obtained from publicly available sources and used to examine regional variations in case fatality rate (CFR). Based on a factor of underestimation and the duration of time from symptom onset to death, the time-delay adjusted CFR for COVID-19 was estimated in the four most affected provinces (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia) and nationwide. The model-based adjusted CFR was higher than the crude CFR throughout the pandemic, primarily owing to the incorporation in our estimation of the delay between case reports and deaths. The adjusted CFR in Canada was estimated to be 3.36% nationwide. At the provincial level, the adjusted CFR was the highest in Quebec (5.13%)-where the proportion of deaths among older individuals was also the highest among the four provinces-followed by Ontario (3.17%), British Columbia (1.97%), and Alberta (1.13%). Provincial-level variations in CFR were considerable, suggesting that public health interventions focused on densely populated areas and elderly individuals can ameliorate the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.
截至 2020 年 12 月 15 日，加拿大共记录了 475214 例 COVID-19 病例，包括 13659 例死亡。在 2020 年 12 月 15 日之前，加拿大每日确诊病例和死亡报告均来自公开来源，并用于检查病死率（CFR）的地区差异。基于低估因素和从症状出现到死亡的时间间隔，对 COVID-19 在受影响最严重的四个省份（魁北克省、安大略省、艾伯塔省和不列颠哥伦比亚省）和全国范围内进行了时间调整后的 CFR 估计。在整个大流行期间，基于模型的调整后 CFR 均高于原始 CFR，主要是因为在我们的估计中纳入了病例报告和死亡之间的延迟。估计加拿大的调整后 CFR 为全国 3.36%。在省级水平上，调整后的 CFR 在魁北克省（5.13%）最高-在这四个省份中，老年人的死亡比例也是最高的-其次是安大略省（3.17%），不列颠哥伦比亚省（1.97%）和艾伯塔省（1.13%）。CFR 的省级差异很大，这表明集中在人口稠密地区和老年人的公共卫生干预措施可以减轻 COVID-19 大流行的死亡负担。
