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高检测环境下调整年龄别延迟的 COVID-19 病死率:韩国,2020 年 2 月至 2021 年 2 月。

Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Soongsil University, Seoul 06978, Korea.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 May 11;18(10):5053. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18105053.

Abstract

In South Korea, a country with a high coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) testing rate, a total of 87,324 COVID-19 cases, including 1562 deaths, have been recorded as of 23 February 2021. This study assessed the delay-adjusted COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR), including data from the second and third waves. A statistical method was applied to the data from 20 February 2021 through 23 February 2021 to minimize bias in the crude CFR, accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death. The resulting overall delay-adjusted CFR was 1.97% (95% credible interval: 1.94-2.00%). The delay-adjusted CFR was highest among adults aged ≥80 years and 70-79 years (22.88% and 7.09%, respectively). The cumulative incidence rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 60-69 years. The cumulative mortality rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 70-79 years (47 and 12 per million, respectively). In South Korea, older adults are being disproportionately affected by COVID-19 with a high death rate, although the incidence rate among younger individuals is relatively high. Interventions to prevent COVID-19 should target older adults to minimize the number of deaths.

摘要

截至 2021 年 2 月 23 日,韩国累计报告新冠肺炎确诊病例 87324 例,其中死亡 1562 例。本研究评估了调整延迟后的新冠肺炎病死率(CFR),包括第二波和第三波的数据。采用统计方法对 2021 年 2 月 20 日至 23 日的数据进行分析,以最小化粗病死率的偏倚,将生存间隔作为发病和死亡之间的滞后时间来计算。由此得出的总体调整后延迟 CFR 为 1.97%(95%可信区间:1.94-2.00%)。≥80 岁和 70-79 岁的成年人的调整后延迟 CFR 最高(分别为 22.88%和 7.09%)。≥80 岁和 60-69 岁的人群累积发病率最高。≥80 岁和 70-79 岁的人群累积死亡率最高(分别为每百万人 47 人和 12 人)。韩国老年人感染新冠肺炎的比例较高,死亡率较高,尽管年轻人的发病率相对较高。预防新冠肺炎的干预措施应针对老年人,以尽量减少死亡人数。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/acf5/8151864/278bf2fd0f36/ijerph-18-05053-g001.jpg

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